RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 20, 2022
Scott Novak
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
10.8
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
86.5
≈ in line with the league average (93.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.6
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 542 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
DAL offensevsATL defense
DAL offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 4 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#30
+0.13
slight#28
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.12
#27
−0.05
Stronger#18
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#23Stronger
45%
#31
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
46%
#31
65%
slight#28
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 22 places
5.6%
#9Stronger
4.8%
#31
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.59
#28
1.00
Stronger#18
ATL offensevsDAL defense
ATL offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
+0.05
#16
+0.06
#16
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 24 places
+0.01
#7Stronger
+0.11
#31
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#15
37%
Stronger#8
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 14 places
56%
#18Stronger
75%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.4%
#7
8.7%
slight#2
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.35
#25
1.24
Stronger#13
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
DAL offenseATL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:DAL scores 53% · allows 53%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DALATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
DAL6 games
Scored12.7
Allowed12.2
Pass share47%
40–53% · 172 plays
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
DAL2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed15.5
Pass share58%
64 plays · too few games for a range
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
DAL9 games
Scored14.2
Allowed14.1
Pass share62%
57–67% · 288 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DALat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.8
7.2Q1
9.0
8.1Q2
14.8scored15.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.0
5.2Q3
6.4
8.4Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
DALATL
7-10
Record
8-9
20.6
Points for / game
22.9
27.5
Points against / game
24.9
2-7 / 5-3
Home / road
4-5 / 4-4
L L W W L
Last 5
L L W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
DALATL
-0.089
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.032
0.080
EPA / play allowed
0.060
241
Pass yards / game
252
100
Rush yards / game
131
238
Pass yards allowed
236
137
Rush yards allowed
121
1.4 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.4
2.2 / 3.0
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 1.8
17.1
First downs / game
19.5
54
Penalty yards / game
49
−0.6 · #29 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+0.3 · #26 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
DALATL
5-13 · 28%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-9 · 25%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), DAL 35 games, ATL 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3DALseriesATL4
Avg total points
49.6
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024DAL 21 at ATL 27ATL
2021ATL 3 at DAL 43DAL
2020ATL 39 at DAL 40DAL
2018DAL 22 at ATL 19DAL
2017DAL 7 at ATL 27ATL
2015ATL 39 at DAL 28ATL
2012DAL 13 at ATL 19ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
CeeDee LambWR15224.6%
Jake FergusonTE8613.9%
Jalen TolbertWR7912.8%
Brandin CooksWR548.7%
KaVontae TurpinWR528.4%
Rico DowdleRB497.9%
Luke SchoonmakerTE365.8%
Jalen BrooksWR304.8%
Hunter LuepkeRB162.6%
Jonathan MingoWR162.6%
Ezekiel ElliottRB152.4%
Ryan FlournoyWR142.3%
Brevyn Spann-FordTE142.3%
Deuce VaughnRB50.8%
Dalvin CookRB10.2%
Drake LondonWR15829.3%
Darnell MooneyWR10619.7%
Ray-Ray McCloudWR8716.1%
Kyle PittsTE7413.7%
Bijan RobinsonRB7213.4%
Tyler AllgeierRB132.4%
KhaDarel HodgeWR122.2%
Charlie WoernerTE122.2%
Casey WashingtonWR20.4%
Chris BlairWR20.4%
Ross DwelleyTE10.2%
Dallas Cowboys2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
