RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 4, 2022
Craig Wrolstad
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
10.6
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
91.4
≈ in line with the league average (93.9)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 481 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
MIA offensevsIND defense
MIA offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · IND defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.08
#12Stronger
+0.09
#23
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
−0.23
#31
−0.11
Stronger#9
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#25slight
45%
#30
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#16Stronger
62%
#23
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#17Stronger
5.9%
#23
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.12
#15
1.47
Stronger#7
IND offensevsMIA defense
IND offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#24
+0.01
Stronger#9
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#15
−0.10
slight#10
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#19
37%
Stronger#6
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
54%
#23
49%
Stronger#5
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 16 places
5.6%
#10Stronger
5.6%
#26
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.71
#29
0.94
Stronger#20
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
MIA offenseIND defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIA
+0.08#12▼
+0.09#23▲
Pass success ratefavors MIA
48%#12
48%#25
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors IND
5.8%#30
8.0%#17▲
Yards / dropback
6.0#22
6.8#26
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.3
7.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
7%
10%
Short throws (≤5 air)
56%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIA
+3.1#10▲
+3.5#27▼
YAC / completionfavors MIA
5.4#8
5.3#18
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors MIA
6.6%#17
5.9%#23▼
Scramble rate
3.8%
5.4%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors IND
1.7%#10
3.0%#3▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 40 · M 22 · R 38
L 38 · M 21 · R 41
IND offenseMIA defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIA
−0.05#24▲
+0.01#9▼
Pass success ratefavors MIA
41%#27
46%#15
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIA
9.7%#9
6.9%#2
Yards / dropbackfavors MIA
6.3#16
6.0#6
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
10.6
6.5
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
18%
8%
Short throws (≤5 air)
43%
57%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIA
−4.9#32▲
−1.1#6▼
YAC / completion
5.0#23
5.4#22
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors IND
5.6%#10
5.6%#26
Scramble rate
4.2%
3.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors MIA
3.7%#31
1.8%#24▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 20 · R 41
L 36 · M 21 · R 43
Miami Dolphins · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:MIA scores 59% · allows 41%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MIAINDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
MIA7 games
Scored10.0
Allowed12.4
Pass share40%
29–51% · 176 plays
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
MIA2 games · small sample
Scored8.5
Allowed17.5
Pass share45%
66 plays · too few games for a range
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
MIA8 games
Scored4.9
Allowed14.6
Pass share64%
57–72% · 188 plays
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MIAat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 8 (of 17)
5.4
4.6Q1
5.5
5.3Q2
10.8scored9.9allowedleague 11.4
1st half
1.6
8.2Q3
5.6
5.9Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MIAIND
8-9
Record
8-9
20.3
Points for / game
22.2
21.4
Points against / game
25.1
5-3 / 3-6
Home / road
5-3 / 3-6
L W W L W
Last 5
W L W L W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
MIAIND
-0.037
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.054
-0.027
EPA / play allowed
0.003
237
Pass yards / game
212
106
Rush yards / game
137
225
Pass yards allowed
244
104
Rush yards allowed
132
0.9 / 1.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 2.0
2.5 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.1
18.3
First downs / game
17.1
54
Penalty yards / game
40
−4.6 · #41 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−2.2 · #36 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MIAIND
3-12 · 20%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-15 · 25%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), MIA 35 games, IND 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2MIAseriesIND6
Avg total points
38.4
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history). IND have won the last 3.
2025MIA 8 at IND 33IND
2024MIA 10 at IND 16IND
2021IND 27 at MIA 17IND
2019MIA 16 at IND 12MIA
2018MIA 24 at IND 27IND
2015IND 18 at MIA 12IND
2013MIA 24 at IND 20MIA
2012MIA 20 at IND 23IND
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Tyreek HillWR12321.7%
Jonnu SmithTE11119.5%
De'Von AchaneRB8715.3%
Jaylen WaddleWR8314.6%
Malik WashingtonWR366.3%
Raheem MostertRB234.0%
Julian HillTE193.3%
Odell Beckham Jr.WR183.2%
Durham SmytheTE173.0%
Alec IngoldFB122.1%
River CracraftWR91.6%
Jaylen WrightRB61.1%
Tanner ConnerTE40.7%
Braxton BerriosWR40.7%
Grant DuBoseWR40.7%
Robbie ChosenWR40.7%
Jeff WilsonRB30.5%
Dee EskridgeWR30.5%
Erik EzukanmaWR20.4%
Michael PittmanWR11122.6%
Josh DownsWR10721.7%
Alec PierceWR6914.0%
Adonai MitchellWR5511.2%
Kylen GransonTE316.3%
Jonathan TaylorRB316.3%
Mo Alie-CoxTE224.5%
Trey SermonRB193.9%
Tyler GoodsonRB153.0%
Andrew OgletreeTE142.8%
Ashton DulinWR81.6%
Will MalloryTE81.6%
Anthony GouldWR10.2%
Anthony RichardsonQB10.2%
Miami Dolphins2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
