RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 28, 2022
Bill Vinovich
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.0
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
83.3
≈ in line with the league average (93.8)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.8
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 483 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
SEA offensevsATL defense
SEA offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#20Stronger
+0.13
#28
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.11
#24
−0.05
Stronger#18
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 11 places
38%
#20Stronger
45%
#31
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
57%
#15Stronger
65%
#28
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.1%
#24Stronger
4.8%
#31
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.12
#16slight
1.00
#18
ATL offensevsSEA defense
ATL offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · SEA defense in 4 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.05
#16
+0.02
slight#11
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#7Stronger
−0.06
#16
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#15
37%
slight#10
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 10 places
56%
#18
53%
Stronger#8
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.4%
#7Stronger
7.0%
#14
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.35
#25
1.06
Stronger#15
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
SEA offenseATL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors SEA
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
Points in the 1st half:SEA scores 47% · allows 45%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
SEAATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
SEA10 games
Scored12.9
Allowed9.0
Pass share39%
31–47% · 275 plays
ATL6 games
Scored9.7
Allowed13.0
Pass share38%
26–49% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
SEA2 games · small sample
Scored24.0
Allowed3.5
Pass share35%
71 plays · too few games for a range
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
SEA5 games
Scored17.4
Allowed10.6
Pass share67%
62–72% · 175 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
SEAat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 5 (of 17)
5.9
2.6Q1
7.7
4.7Q2
13.6scored7.4allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.2
3.9Q3
7.9
4.5Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.8
4.8Q1
7.5
6.4Q2
12.4scored11.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.3
5.5Q3
5.6
6.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
SEAATL
10-7
Record
8-9
22.1
Points for / game
22.9
21.6
Points against / game
24.9
3-6 / 7-1
Home / road
4-5 / 4-4
W W L L W
Last 5
L L W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
SEAATL
-0.012
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.032
-0.016
EPA / play allowed
0.060
258
Pass yards / game
252
96
Rush yards / game
131
231
Pass yards allowed
236
121
Rush yards allowed
121
1.1 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.4
3.2 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 1.8
17.6
First downs / game
19.5
58
Penalty yards / game
49
+1.4 · #21 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+0.3 · #26 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
SEAATL
7-12 · 37%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-9 · 25%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), SEA 34 games, ATL 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
6SEAseriesATL4
Avg total points
52.6
Meetings
10
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history). SEA have won the last 2.
2025SEA 37 at ATL 9SEA
2024SEA 34 at ATL 14SEA
2022ATL 27 at SEA 23ATL
2020SEA 38 at ATL 25SEA
2019SEA 27 at ATL 20SEA
2017ATL 34 at SEA 31ATL
2016SEA 20 at ATL 36PlayoffsATL
2016ATL 24 at SEA 26SEA
All 10 meetings
2013SEA 33 at ATL 10SEA
2012SEA 28 at ATL 30PlayoffsATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR13724.1%
DK MetcalfWR10819.0%
Tyler LockettWR7413.0%
Noah FantTE6411.2%
Kenneth Walker IIIRB539.3%
Zach CharbonnetRB529.1%
AJ BarnerTE386.7%
Jake BoboWR173.0%
Pharaoh BrownTE122.1%
Laviska Shenault Jr.WR50.9%
Kenny McIntoshRB40.7%
Cody WhiteWR30.5%
George HolaniRB10.2%
Dareke YoungWR10.2%
Drake LondonWR15829.3%
Darnell MooneyWR10619.7%
Ray-Ray McCloudWR8716.1%
Kyle PittsTE7413.7%
Bijan RobinsonRB7213.4%
Tyler AllgeierRB132.4%
KhaDarel HodgeWR122.2%
Charlie WoernerTE122.2%
Casey WashingtonWR20.4%
Chris BlairWR20.4%
Ross DwelleyTE10.2%
Seattle Seahawks2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
