RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 13, 2022
Land Clark
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.7
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
98.1
≈ in line with the league average (93.5)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.5
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 524 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
DEN offensevsNO defense
DEN offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · NO defense in 1
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.07
#14
+0.04
slight#13
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 14 places
−0.07
#16Stronger
+0.04
#30
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#17slight
41%
#21
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
63%
#8Stronger
56%
#15
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 23 places
3.9%
#2Stronger
5.8%
#25
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.06
#11Stronger
1.00
#19
NO offensevsDEN defense
NO offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · DEN defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 27 places
−0.08
#28
−0.07
Stronger#1
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.02
#10
−0.13
Stronger#4
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#28
39%
Stronger#14
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
58%
#13
44%
Stronger#1
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.0%
#15
8.9%
Stronger#1
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#10slight
1.33
#11
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
DEN offenseNO defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.07#14▲
+0.04#13▲
Pass success ratefavors NO
44%#21
44%#9
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DEN
8.8%#15
9.1%#26
Yards / dropbackfavors DEN
6.2#17▲
6.6#24
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.4
8.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
54%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+0.7#17▲
−3.0#3▼
YAC / completionfavors DEN
5.4#10
5.8#27▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DEN
3.9%#2
5.8%#25▼
Scramble rate
8.0%
6.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.0%#13▼
2.4%#13▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 20 · R 41
L 37 · M 23 · R 39
NO offenseDEN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DEN
−0.08#28▼
−0.07#1▲
Pass success ratefavors DEN
40%#31
43%#5
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DEN
7.8%#19▼
7.2%#5
Yards / dropbackfavors DEN
6.0#21
5.9#3
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.1
7.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
14%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
53%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DEN
−3.2#29▼
+1.2#14▲
YAC / completion
5.4#9
5.1#10
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DEN
6.0%#15
8.9%#1▲
Scramble rate
4.4%
5.3%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.2%#17▲
2.4%#12▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 31 · M 26 · R 42
L 35 · M 18 · R 47
Denver Broncos · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
Points in the 1st half:DEN scores 40% · allows 47%NO scores 41% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
DENNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
DEN5 games
Scored12.6
Allowed12.6
Pass share55%
47–64% · 155 plays
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
DEN6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed8.8
Pass share53%
47–59% · 191 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
DEN6 games
Scored17.3
Allowed11.5
Pass share63%
53–72% · 206 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.1
Allowed10.2
Pass share65%
60–69% · 327 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
DENat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.7
3.6Q1
5.4
6.1Q2
9.1scored9.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.8
4.9Q3
8.2
5.6Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.1
6.4Q1
6.1
7.1Q2
8.1scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.5
4.3Q3
6.0
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
DENNO
10-8
Record
5-12
24.0
Points for / game
19.9
19.0
Points against / game
23.4
6-2 / 4-6
Home / road
3-6 / 2-6
L W L L W
Last 5
L L L L W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
DENNO
0.019
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.043
-0.082
EPA / play allowed
0.034
220
Pass yards / game
219
110
Rush yards / game
115
244
Pass yards allowed
253
103
Rush yards allowed
141
1.1 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.5
1.4 / 3.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 2.3
17.1
First downs / game
16.4
54
Penalty yards / game
59
+2.9 · #17 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−8.9 · #47 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
DENNO
5-13 · 28%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-12 · 29%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), DEN 35 games, NO 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3DENseriesNO1
Avg total points
43.3
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024DEN 33 at NO 10DEN
2020NO 31 at DEN 3NO
2016DEN 25 at NO 23DEN
2012NO 14 at DEN 34DEN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Courtland SuttonWR14425.2%
Javonte WilliamsRB7212.6%
Devaughn VeleWR5710.0%
Marvin Mims Jr.WR569.8%
Troy FranklinWR569.8%
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR457.9%
Jaleel McLaughlinRB284.9%
Lucas KrullTE244.2%
Adam TrautmanTE234.0%
Josh ReynoldsWR193.3%
Nate AdkinsTE152.6%
Greg DulcichTE122.1%
Michael BurtonFB101.7%
Audric EstiméRB50.9%
Tyler BadieRB30.5%
Blake WatsonRB20.3%
Bo NixQB10.2%
Alvin KamaraRB8917.2%
Juwan JohnsonTE6612.8%
Chris OlaveWR448.5%
Foster MoreauTE438.3%
Rashid ShaheedWR417.9%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR356.8%
Taysom HillTE316.0%
Dante PettisWR285.4%
Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR275.2%
Mason TiptonWR265.0%
Kevin Austin Jr.WR224.3%
Jordan MimsRB183.5%
Bub MeansWR152.9%
Jamaal WilliamsRB112.1%
Kendre MillerRB81.5%
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB51.0%
Dallin HolkerTE40.8%
Adam PrenticeFB40.8%
Denver Broncos2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
