RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 24, 2022
Brad Allen
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.1
≈ in line with the league average (11.2)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
85.3
≈ in line with the league average (92.4)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.7
≈ in line with the league average (8.9)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 511 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CLE offensevsLV defense
CLE offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · LV defense in 6 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.22
#32
+0.09
Stronger#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.12
#26
−0.08
Stronger#15
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
30%
#32
40%
Stronger#19
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
49%
#27
61%
slight#22
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.7%
#29
6.1%
Stronger#22
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.88
#31
0.76
slight#29
LV offensevsCLE defense
LV offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · CLE defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin) · 2 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.08
#27
+0.09
slight#22
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
−0.28
#32
−0.08
Stronger#13
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
35%
#29
37%
Stronger#7
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.· even
49%
#26
63%
#26
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.1%
#21
7.1%
Stronger#11
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.· even
1.71
#30
0.65
#30
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CLE offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LV
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CLE scores 59% · allows 49%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLELVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CLE6 games
Scored7.3
Allowed8.2
Pass share48%
41–56% · 151 plays
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CLE7 games
Scored7.3
Allowed13.7
Pass share58%
47–69% · 209 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CLE4 games
Scored7.3
Allowed11.0
Pass share62%
45–79% · 131 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLEat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.2
6.2Q1
6.4
4.6Q2
10.6scored10.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.5
5.6Q3
4.8
5.5Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CLELV
3-14
Record
4-13
15.2
Points for / game
18.2
25.6
Points against / game
25.5
2-6 / 1-8
Home / road
2-6 / 2-7
L L L L L
Last 5
L W W L L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CLELV
-0.180
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.145
0.001
EPA / play allowed
0.008
228
Pass yards / game
242
95
Rush yards / game
80
228
Pass yards allowed
235
130
Rush yards allowed
117
1.6 / 0.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 0.9
3.9 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.9 / 2.2
16.1
First downs / game
16.9
54
Penalty yards / game
47
−9.1 · #48 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−5.4 · #45 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CLELV
6-15 · 29%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-19 · 21%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), CLE 35 games, LV 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3CLEseriesLV5
Avg total points
41.1
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025CLE 24 at LV 10CLE
2024CLE 16 at LV 20LV
2021LV 16 at CLE 14LV
2020LV 16 at CLE 6LV
2018CLE 42 at LV 45LV
2015LV 27 at CLE 20LV
2014LV 13 at CLE 23CLE
2012CLE 20 at LV 17CLE
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jerry JeudyWR14522.9%
Elijah MooreWR10216.1%
David NjokuTE9715.3%
Jordan AkinsTE589.1%
Amari CooperWR538.4%
Cedric TillmanWR497.7%
Jerome FordRB436.8%
Pierre StrongRB223.5%
Mike WoodsWR172.7%
Nick ChubbRB111.7%
Blake WhiteheartTE91.4%
D'Onta ForemanRB81.3%
Jamari ThrashWR71.1%
James ProcheWR30.5%
Jacob KibodiRB30.5%
David BellWR30.5%
Geoff SwaimTE10.2%
Brenden BatesTE10.2%
Kadarius ToneyWR10.2%
Jaelon DardenWR10.2%
Brock BowersTE15325.9%
Jakobi MeyersWR12921.8%
Tre TuckerWR8113.7%
Alexander MattisonRB488.1%
Ameer AbdullahRB478.0%
Michael MayerTE325.4%
DJ TurnerWR294.9%
Davante AdamsWR274.6%
Harrison BryantTE122.0%
Zamir WhiteRB81.4%
Sincere McCormickRB71.2%
Terrace Marshall Jr.WR61.0%
Ramel KeytonWR30.5%
Alex BachmanWR30.5%
Kristian WilkersonWR30.5%
Chris CollierRB20.3%
John ShenkerTE10.2%
Cleveland Browns2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
