RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 30, 2022
Shawn Hochuli
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.0
≈ in line with the league average (11.2)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
93.8
≈ in line with the league average (91.8)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.7
≈ in line with the league average (8.9)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 493 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playU.S. Bank Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
HOU offensevsMIN defense
HOU offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · MIN defense in 6 (6 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
−0.01
#22
−0.04
Stronger#4
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 23 places
−0.11
#25
−0.17
Stronger#2
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#18
35%
Stronger#2
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
48%
#28
58%
Stronger#18
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.8%
#30
6.9%
Stronger#15
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.11
#13
1.72
Stronger#1
MIN offensevsHOU defense
MIN offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · HOU defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.05
#17
−0.04
Stronger#3
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#21
−0.14
Stronger#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#14
36%
Stronger#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.· even
55%
#21
60%
#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 25 places
8.6%
#28
8.0%
Stronger#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.22
#19
1.63
Stronger#4
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
HOU offenseMIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
−0.01#22
−0.04#4▲
Pass success ratefavors MIN
42%#24
44%#8
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
7.4%#21
7.5%#7
Yards / dropbackfavors MIN
5.8#23
6.0#8
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
7.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
47%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
−1.9#27▲
−0.4#8▲
YAC / completionfavors MIN
4.9#27
4.9#5
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors MIN
8.8%#30
6.9%#15
Scramble rate
6.3%
3.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors MIN
2.1%#15▼
3.6%#2▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 33 · M 23 · R 43
L 36 · M 25 · R 39
MIN offenseHOU defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
+0.05#17▼
−0.04#3▼
Pass success ratefavors HOU
49%#9
40%#1
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
9.9%#7▼
8.0%#16
Yards / dropbackfavors HOU
6.6#12
5.9#2
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.6
9.1
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
15%
Short throws (≤5 air)
48%
48%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
+3.4#9▼
−5.9#1▼
YAC / completionfavors MIN
4.9#26
6.2#32
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors HOU
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:HOU scores 53% · allows 49%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOUMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
HOUMIN
11-8
Record
14-4
22.0
Points for / game
24.5
21.4
Points against / game
19.9
6-3 / 5-5
Home / road
8-1 / 6-3
L W W L L
Last 5
L L W W W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 18–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
HOUMIN
-0.047
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.005
-0.084
EPA / play allowed
-0.082
236
Pass yards / game
257
117
Rush yards / game
109
220
Pass yards allowed
259
107
Rush yards allowed
93
1.0 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 2.0
3.4 / 2.9
Sacks allowed / made
3.2 / 2.8
17.1
First downs / game
18.1
60
Penalty yards / game
48
−0.9 · #33 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.2 · #22 of 49
2024 season to date · 18–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
HOUMIN
8-12 · 40%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-7 · 50%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), HOU 38 games, MIN 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0HOUseriesMIN4
Avg total points
42.0
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). MIN have won the last 4.
2024HOU 7 at MIN 34MIN
2020MIN 31 at HOU 23MIN
2016HOU 13 at MIN 31MIN
2012MIN 23 at HOU 6MIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Nico CollinsWR11518.9%
Dalton SchultzTE9315.3%
Tank DellWR8113.3%
Stefon DiggsWR6410.5%
Joe MixonRB579.4%
John Metchie IIIWR477.7%
Robert WoodsWR345.6%
Xavier HutchinsonWR335.4%
Dare OgunbowaleRB294.8%
Cade StoverTE264.3%
Cam AkersRB71.2%
Dameon PierceRB50.8%
Diontae JohnsonWR50.8%
Brevin JordanTE30.5%
J.J. TaylorRB30.5%
Jared WayneWR20.3%
C.J. StroudQB10.2%
Irv SmithTE10.2%
Andrew BeckFB10.2%
Justin JeffersonWR16229.1%
Jordan AddisonWR10719.2%
Aaron JonesRB6812.2%
T.J. HockensonTE6712.0%
Jalen NailorWR478.4%
Johnny MundtTE305.4%
Josh OliverTE295.2%
Trent SherfieldWR122.2%
Brandon PowellWR101.8%
C.J. HamFB71.3%
Ty ChandlerRB61.1%
Myles GaskinRB10.2%
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
