RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 9, 2022
Clay Martin
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.0
≈ in line with the league average (11.2)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
94.2
≈ in line with the league average (92.0)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.8
≈ in line with the league average (8.9)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 521 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (1st of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
TB offensevsDET defense
TB offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.21
#4slight
−0.02
#7
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#6Stronger
−0.08
#14
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
51%
#2
32%
slight#1
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
67%
#4Stronger
54%
#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 14 places
6.1%
#16Stronger
5.1%
#30
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.33
#23
1.33
Stronger#12
DET offensevsTB defense
DET offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · TB defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
+0.25
#3Stronger
+0.10
#25
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#3slight
−0.13
#6
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
47%
#4Stronger
39%
#13
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
68%
#3Stronger
53%
#9
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.5%
#8Stronger
6.3%
#19
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 12 places
1.11
#14Stronger
0.89
#26
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
TB offenseDET defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TB scores 50% · allows 55%DET scores 50% · allows 42%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBDETsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TB5 games
Scored12.8
Allowed10.4
Pass share46%
36–56% · 130 plays
DET7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed18.6
Pass share48%
40–56% · 206 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TB6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed14.8
Pass share51%
47–56% · 177 plays
DET8 games
Scored11.5
Allowed14.5
Pass share68%
56–81% · 247 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TB6 games
Scored8.7
Allowed7.5
Pass share69%
61–76% · 188 plays
DET2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share72%
65 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.4
4.8Q1
6.2
8.4Q2
10.5scored13.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
5.0Q3
4.6
5.9Q4
DETat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 8 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
9.6
6.4Q2
13.6scored11.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.2
7.1Q3
7.6
8.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TBDET
10-8
Record
15-3
29.0
Points for / game
33.1
22.7
Points against / game
21.5
5-5 / 5-3
Home / road
7-3 / 8-0
L W W L W
Last 5
L W W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TBDET
0.124
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.157
0.031
EPA / play allowed
-0.009
261
Pass yards / game
281
147
Rush yards / game
149
263
Pass yards allowed
261
97
Rush yards allowed
103
1.3 / 1.3
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.7
2.3 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.1
20.9
First downs / game
23.1
50
Penalty yards / game
56
+7.1 · #7 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+9.0 · #3 of 49
2024 season to date · 18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TBDET
9-12 · 43%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-3 · 40%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), TB 37 games, DET 38. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4TBseriesDET5
Avg total points
44.3
Meetings
9
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025TB 9 at DET 24DET
2024TB 20 at DET 16TB
2023TB 23 at DET 31PlayoffsDET
2023DET 20 at TB 6DET
2020TB 47 at DET 7TB
2019TB 38 at DET 17TB
2017DET 24 at TB 21DET
2014TB 17 at DET 34DET
All 9 meetings
2013TB 24 at DET 21TB
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Mike EvansWR11720.2%
Cade OttonTE8915.3%
Jalen McMillanWR6210.7%
Chris Godwin Jr.WR6210.7%
Rachaad WhiteRB5910.2%
Bucky IrvingRB549.3%
Sterling ShepardWR518.8%
Trey PalmerWR223.8%
Ryan MillerWR203.4%
Payne DurhamTE142.4%
Sean TuckerRB122.1%
Rakim JarrettWR111.9%
Devin CulpTE61.0%
Kameron JohnsonWR10.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR15127.0%
Jameson WilliamsWR9517.0%
Sam LaPortaTE9016.1%
Jahmyr GibbsRB7413.2%
Tim PatrickWR488.6%
David MontgomeryRB386.8%
Kalif RaymondWR254.5%
Brock WrightTE162.9%
Allen RobinsonWR71.3%
Craig ReynoldsRB50.9%
Sione VakiRB30.5%
Isaiah WilliamsWR30.5%
Tom KennedyWR10.2%
Jermar JeffersonRB10.2%
Jared GoffQB10.2%
Shane ZylstraTE10.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2024–25 seasons
Detroit Lions2024–25 seasons
