Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant StadiumStadium scoring factor 91 (112th of 134, 100 = league average) · 48.7 points a game in 22 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
NEB offensevsUTAH defense
NEB offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · UTAH defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.14
#80
−0.11
Stronger#4
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.08
#67Stronger
+0.16
#117
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
46%
#27slight
35%
#31
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.93
#49
2.93
Stronger#16
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
12.8%
#24slight
16.9%
#44
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.85
#13Stronger
1.38
#56
UTAH offensevsNEB defense
UTAH offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · NEB defense in 0
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.31
#31slight
+0.12
#52
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 130 places
+0.33
#1Stronger
+0.22
#131
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
53%
#2Stronger
39%
#67
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 125 places
5.01
#2Stronger
4.37
#127
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
12.4%
#19Stronger
14.4%
#101
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 86 places
0.92
#19Stronger
1.00
#105
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
NEB offenseUTAH defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors UTAH
+0.14#80▼
−0.11#4▼
Pass success ratefavors UTAH
45%#36▼
33%#8
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.39#127
1.70#117
Yards / pass attemptfavors UTAH
7.7#43▼
6.0#12
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors UTAH
10.5%#60▼
8.6%#33▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors UTAH
Points in the 1st half:NEB scores 57% · allows 49%UTAH scores 54% · allows 44%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
NEBUTAHsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
NEB10 games
Scored16.5
Allowed8.7
Pass share44%
37–51% · 287 plays
UTAH12 games
Scored19.2
Allowed7.3
Pass share32%
28–36% · 374 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
NEB4 games
Scored16.5
Allowed13.3
Pass share50%
37–63% · 114 plays
UTAH3 games
Scored21.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share49%
38–60% · 98 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
NEB3 games
Scored5.0
Allowed16.7
Pass share52%
47–57% · 92 plays
UTAH2 games · small sample
Scored18.5
Allowed20.0
Pass share47%
68 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
NEBat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 3 (of 17)
8.5
3.9Q1
10.6
6.9Q2
19.1scored10.8allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.4
6.7Q3
9.1
4.5Q4
UTAHat the half: led 12 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 2 (of 17)
9.8
2.6Q1
12.5
4.8Q2
22.4scored7.4allowedleague 14.6
1st half
8.6
3.2Q3
10.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NEBUTAH
7-6
Record
11-2
28.7
Points for / game
41.3
24.6
Points against / game
18.9
4-3 / 3-3
Home / road
6-1 / 5-1
L L L W L
Last 5
W W W W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
NEBUTAH
+6.2
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+22.2
0.098
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.315
0.146
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.007
46% / 43%
Success rate (off / def)
49% / 38%
1.09 / 1.26
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.26 / 1.34
821
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
708
47%
Returning production
14%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NEBUTAH
1-9 · 10%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
1-3 · 25%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), NEB 26 games, UTAH 25. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0NEBseriesUTAH1
Avg total points
66.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025NEB 22 vs UTAH 44PlayoffsUTAH
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
