Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playChase FieldStadium scoring factor 84 (128th of 134, 100 = league average) · 45.2 points a game in 25 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
UNM offensevsMINN defense
UNM offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MINN defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.12
#90
+0.15
Stronger#63
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.10
#59Stronger
+0.13
#100
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#72slight
40%
#85
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.81
#57slight
3.70
#72
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
13.8%
#45
17.6%
slight#29
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.77
#123
1.23
Stronger#77
MINN offensevsUNM defense
MINN offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · UNM defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.18
#65
+0.14
slight#57
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 84 places
−0.02
#112
−0.01
Stronger#28
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#66slight
40%
#81
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 62 places
3.60
#79
3.01
Stronger#17
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
15.8%
#75
17.2%
Stronger#37
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 57 places
0.69
#5Stronger
1.31
#62
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
UNM offenseMINN defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors MINN
+0.12#90▼
+0.15#63▼
Pass success rate
39%#96▼
44%#109
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors MINN
1.57#57
1.46#28
Yards / pass attemptfavors UNM
7.6#52▼
7.4#86
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
11.4%#34▼
8.4%#28
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors MINN
Points in the 1st half:UNM scores 54% · allows 49%MINN scores 56% · allows 58%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
UNMMINNsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
UNM10 games
Scored17.5
Allowed8.5
Pass share24%
16–32% · 276 plays
MINN6 games
Scored14.2
Allowed11.0
Pass share44%
32–57% · 167 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
UNM5 games
Scored11.2
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
32–62% · 111 plays
MINN4 games
Scored11.0
Allowed7.0
Pass share49%
33–66% · 95 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
UNM2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share55%
60 plays · too few games for a range
MINN7 games
Scored8.7
Allowed9.3
Pass share63%
49–77% · 196 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
UNMat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 2 (of 17)
5.7
2.0Q1
11.8
6.8Q2
17.5scored8.8allowedleague 14.6
1st half
6.0
3.5Q3
8.5
5.5Q4
MINNat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 7 (of 17)
5.5
5.2Q1
9.0
7.6Q2
14.5scored12.9allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.0
3.1Q3
5.5
5.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
UNMMINN
9-4
Record
8-5
27.1
Points for / game
23.0
22.3
Points against / game
22.9
6-0 / 3-4
Home / road
8-0 / 0-5
L W W W W
Last 5
W W L L W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
UNMMINN
+0.9
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+1.5
0.091
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.087
0.041
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.138
41% / 39%
Success rate (off / def)
39% / 44%
1.23 / 1.22
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.20 / 1.26
379
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
711
3%
Returning production
28%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
UNMMINN
5-9 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-7 · 30%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), UNM 25 games, MINN 26. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0UNMseriesMINN1
Avg total points
37.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025UNM 17 vs MINN 20PlayoffsMINN
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
