Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playCaesars SuperdomeStadium scoring factor 99 (75th of 134, 100 = league average) · 53.3 points a game in 21 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
WKU offensevsUSM defense
WKU offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · USM defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.15
#74
+0.03
Stronger#14
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#78slight
+0.11
#94
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 101 places
46%
#25Stronger
46%
#126
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.21
#30Stronger
3.94
#97
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
15.1%
#60
17.4%
Stronger#32
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 108 places
1.62
#111
2.23
Stronger#3
USM offensevsWKU defense
USM offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · WKU defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.22
#52
+0.09
slight#37
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#77
+0.03
Stronger#50
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#70
35%
Stronger#35
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 71 places
3.60
#81
2.72
Stronger#10
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.3%
#90
16.1%
Stronger#59
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.15
#55Stronger
1.08
#96
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
WKU offenseUSM defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors USM
+0.15#74▼
+0.03#14▲
Pass success rate
42%#63
41%#61
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors USM
1.51#89
1.49#42
Yards / pass attempt
7.1#69▼
6.9#56
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors WKU
12.5%#23▼
10.2%#74
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
4.8%#53▲
6.3%#39
Completion %favors WKU
66%#32
63%#87
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.8%#38▲
2.6%#56
USM offenseWKU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.22#52▼
+0.09#37▼
Pass success ratefavors WKU
40%#89
36%#17
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors USM
1.73#15
1.54#60
Yards / pass attemptfavors WKU
7.6#50
6.3#23
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
13.9%#10
8.2%#26
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors USM
Points in the 1st half:WKU scores 50% · allows 56%USM scores 48% · allows 50%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
WKUUSMsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
WKU6 games
Scored15.0
Allowed11.0
Pass share47%
44–49% · 233 plays
USM9 games
Scored16.8
Allowed13.3
Pass share39%
32–46% · 287 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
WKU1 game · small sample
Scored17.0
Allowed13.0
Pass share52%
31 plays · too few games for a range
USM2 games · small sample
Scored7.0
Allowed15.5
Pass share49%
59 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
WKU10 games
Scored11.5
Allowed12.9
Pass share53%
49–58% · 317 plays
USM6 games
Scored13.5
Allowed14.3
Pass share66%
60–72% · 240 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
WKUat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 10 (of 17)
4.5
6.4Q1
8.4
9.1Q2
12.9scored15.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.5
7.4Q3
7.1
4.5Q4
USMat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
8.1
6.4Q2
13.3scored13.9allowedleague 14.6
1st half
7.1
6.1Q3
7.4
7.8Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
WKUUSM
9-4
Record
7-6
29.5
Points for / game
28.8
22.8
Points against / game
27.4
5-1 / 4-3
Home / road
4-4 / 3-2
W L L W W
Last 5
L L L L W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
WKUUSM
+1.6
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−7.1
0.099
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.120
0.042
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.029
43% / 37%
Success rate (off / def)
39% / 41%
1.23 / 1.33
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.33 / 1.21
561
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
603
13%
Returning production
17%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
WKUUSM
5-7 · 42%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
1-13 · 7%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), WKU 27 games, USM 25. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1WKUseriesUSM0
Avg total points
43.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025WKU 27 vs USM 16PlayoffsWKU
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
