Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Center At The StarStadium scoring factor 105 (38th of 134, 100 = league average) · 56.5 points a game in 20 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
MOST offensevsARST defense
MOST offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · ARST defense in 4 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 71 places
+0.30
#34Stronger
+0.27
#105
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#97
+0.10
slight#86
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
36%
#101
42%
slight#98
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.69
#67slight
3.90
#89
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 64 places
23.9%
#135
15.5%
Stronger#71
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.38
#85
1.23
slight#75
ARST offensevsMOST defense
ARST offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MOST defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.18
#67Stronger
+0.25
#97
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.07
#128
+0.11
Stronger#96
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#74slight
40%
#82
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.31
#109
3.89
slight#88
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
17.8%
#111
15.0%
Stronger#83
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 34 places
1.77
#122
1.15
Stronger#88
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
MOST offenseARST defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors MOST
+0.30#34
+0.27#105
Pass success ratefavors MOST
42%#59
44%#98
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors MOST
1.78#8
1.58#88
Yards / pass attemptfavors MOST
8.4#20
8.1#118
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors MOST
13.3%#14
10.2%#76
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors ARST
10.1%#131
7.9%#12
Completion %favors MOST
64%#51
68%#131
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.8%#40
3.1%#37▼
ARST offenseMOST defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors ARST
+0.18#67▲
+0.25#97▲
Pass success ratefavors ARST
44%#47
43%#92
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors MOST
1.40#121
1.56#69
Yards / pass attempt
6.6#97
7.2#74
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors MOST
8.6%#107
9.6%#58▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
5.1%#67
5.9%#57▲
Completion %favors ARST
66%#30
64%#103
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors ARST
1.4%#20▼
2.7%#53▼
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
Points in the 1st half:MOST scores 50% · allows 47%ARST scores 55% · allows 55%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
MOSTARSTsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
MOST3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed13.7
Pass share34%
24–45% · 90 plays
ARST3 games
Scored15.7
Allowed9.3
Pass share41%
20–61% · 96 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
MOST5 games
Scored14.2
Allowed13.6
Pass share47%
39–54% · 161 plays
ARST5 games
Scored11.6
Allowed13.2
Pass share54%
48–60% · 176 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
MOST9 games
Scored11.9
Allowed17.4
Pass share56%
51–60% · 260 plays
ARST9 games
Scored8.4
Allowed11.9
Pass share54%
49–58% · 333 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
MOSTat the half: led 3 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 9 (of 17)
6.0
5.2Q1
6.7
8.6Q2
12.7scored13.9allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.9
7.1Q3
6.2
8.6Q4
ARSTat the half: led 3 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.0
7.5Q1
8.2
7.1Q2
13.2scored14.6allowedleague 14.6
1st half
4.2
4.9Q3
6.5
6.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MOSTARST
7-6
Record
7-6
25.6
Points for / game
25.2
28.8
Points against / game
27.4
3-3 / 4-3
Home / road
4-3 / 3-3
L L L W W
Last 5
W W L L W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
MOSTARST
−10.7
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−8.8
0.145
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.050
0.163
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.160
39% / 43%
Success rate (off / def)
42% / 43%
1.50 / 1.31
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.14 / 1.29
426
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
591
—
Returning production
59%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MOSTARST
2-6 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-9 · 44%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), MOST 14 games, ARST 26. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0MOSTseriesARST1
Avg total points
62.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025MOST 28 vs ARST 34PlayoffsARST
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
