Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz StadiumStadium scoring factor 105 (39th of 134, 100 = league average) · 56.2 points a game in 24 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
UGA offensevsALA defense
UGA offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · ALA defense in 2
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.29
#38
+0.06
slight#28
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.15
#36slight
+0.05
#61
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
43%
#35slight
37%
#51
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 59 places
4.79
#7Stronger
3.65
#66
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
13.4%
#36
17.7%
slight#26
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.93
#22Stronger
1.33
#59
ALA offensevsUGA defense
ALA offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · UGA defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.30
#36Stronger
+0.18
#73
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 96 places
−0.01
#106
−0.07
Stronger#10
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#46
35%
slight#36
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.04
#38Stronger
3.67
#68
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
13.5%
#39Stronger
15.1%
#80
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 93 places
0.87
#15Stronger
0.93
#108
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
UGA offenseALA defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.29#38▼
+0.06#28▲
Pass success rate
48%#17▼
38%#33
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors ALA
1.39#125
1.51#49
Yards / pass attemptfavors ALA
7.4#61▼
6.4#31
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors ALA
10.8%#49▼
7.1%#7▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
4.4%#41▲
6.6%#30
Completion %favors UGA
69%#10
62%#72
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors UGA
2.2%#58▼
1.3%#130
ALA offenseUGA defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors ALA
+0.30#36▼
+0.18#73
Pass success ratefavors ALA
45%#33▼
41%#66
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors UGA
1.57#53
1.41#14
Yards / pass attempt
7.6#53▼
6.6#46
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
10.9%#45▼
8.0%#21▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors ALA
4.8%#55▲
3.8%#117
Completion %
66%#33
61%#57
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors ALA
2.1%#56▼
1.5%#119▼
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:UGA scores 56% · allows 49%ALA scores 58% · allows 57%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
UGAALAsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
UGA12 games
Scored16.0
Allowed9.1
Pass share41%
37–45% · 363 plays
ALA11 games
Scored14.2
Allowed9.3
Pass share44%
39–49% · 367 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
UGA2 games · small sample
Scored18.5
Allowed12.0
Pass share32%
63 plays · too few games for a range
ALA3 games
Scored13.3
Allowed4.3
Pass share47%
34–61% · 118 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
UGA3 games
Scored17.0
Allowed6.7
Pass share41%
28–54% · 117 plays
ALA3 games
Scored14.0
Allowed11.7
Pass share56%
71 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
UGAat the half: led 12 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 3 (of 17)
7.8
4.6Q1
13.0
4.1Q2
20.8scored8.6allowedleague 14.6
1st half
7.8
3.4Q3
8.3
5.4Q4
ALAat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 3 (of 17)
6.1
4.2Q1
13.1
7.4Q2
19.1scored11.6allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.8
4.2Q3
8.2
4.6Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
UGAALA
12-2
Record
11-4
32.1
Points for / game
29.5
17.6
Points against / game
19.2
6-2 / 6-0
Home / road
6-2 / 5-2
L W W W W
Last 5
L W L W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 14–15 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
UGAALA
+24.1
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+14.8
0.220
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.157
0.035
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.026
48% / 39%
Success rate (off / def)
43% / 38%
1.14 / 1.13
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.27 / 1.23
1003
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
994
37%
Returning production
43%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
UGAALA
2-1 · 67%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-2 · 60%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), UGA 28 games, ALA 28. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1UGAseriesALA3
Avg total points
51.5
Meetings
4
They have met every season in our history.
2025UGA 28 vs ALA 7UGA
2025ALA 24 at UGA 21ALA
2024UGA 34 at ALA 41ALA
2023UGA 24 vs ALA 27ALA
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
