Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant StadiumStadium scoring factor 120 (5th of 134, 100 = league average) · 64.5 points a game in 21 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
USU offensevsUNLV defense
USU offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · UNLV defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.22
#51Stronger
+0.20
#82
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 83 places
+0.14
#38Stronger
+0.17
#121
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 95 places
35%
#112
33%
Stronger#17
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.49
#16Stronger
3.78
#79
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.1%
#88
14.9%
slight#85
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.85
#14slight
1.71
#22
UNLV offensevsUSU defense
UNLV offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · USU defense in 0
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.32
#29Stronger
+0.15
#60
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 102 places
+0.21
#13Stronger
+0.16
#115
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
45%
#28Stronger
40%
#83
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.45
#18Stronger
3.77
#77
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.0%
#81Stronger
13.5%
#113
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.21
#61slight
1.31
#64
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
USU offenseUNLV defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors USU
+0.22#51▼
+0.20#82▼
Pass success rate
41%#83
43%#95
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.55#67
1.56#68
Yards / pass attemptfavors USU
8.0#37▼
7.7#104
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
10.4%#62
10.2%#75
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors UNLV
8.9%#125
6.9%#27▼
Completion %favors UNLV
60%#89
60%#43
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
3.2%#91▼
2.0%#93▼
UNLV offenseUSU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors UNLV
+0.32#29
+0.15#60▼
Pass success ratefavors UNLV
46%#26
42%#70
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.58#50
1.46#24
Yards / pass attemptfavors UNLV
8.3#22
7.0#61
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
12.6%#18
8.7%#35
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Points in the 1st half:USU scores 51% · allows 58%UNLV scores 53% · allows 50%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
USUUNLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
USU4 games
Scored15.5
Allowed11.5
Pass share31%
18–44% · 105 plays
UNLV9 games
Scored12.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share33%
30–37% · 266 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
USU4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed10.3
Pass share49%
42–56% · 127 plays
UNLV1 game · small sample
Scored19.0
Allowed13.0
Pass share55%
38 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
USU9 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.7
Pass share51%
45–56% · 305 plays
UNLV7 games
Scored15.7
Allowed17.6
Pass share51%
45–57% · 218 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
USUat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 9 (of 17)
6.4
6.3Q1
7.1
10.2Q2
13.4scored16.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
6.5
4.8Q3
6.0
6.6Q4
UNLVat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.6
6.4Q1
11.9
6.9Q2
16.5scored13.4allowedleague 14.6
1st half
6.0
7.4Q3
8.1
6.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
USUUNLV
6-7
Record
10-4
30.9
Points for / game
34.1
28.7
Points against / game
28.0
5-2 / 1-5
Home / road
5-1 / 5-3
L L W L W
Last 5
L L W W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13–14 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
USUUNLV
−3.1
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+4.3
0.167
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.247
0.149
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.146
41% / 43%
Success rate (off / def)
47% / 44%
1.33 / 1.25
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.33 / 1.33
504
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
701
25%
Returning production
15%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
USUUNLV
3-12 · 20%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-4 · 43%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), USU 25 games, UNLV 28. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0USUseriesUNLV2
Avg total points
69.5
Meetings
2
They meet only some seasons (2 of the 4 in our history). UNLV have won the last 2.
2025USU 26 at UNLV 29UNLV
2024UNLV 50 at USU 34UNLV
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
