Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant StadiumStadium scoring factor 120 (5th of 134, 100 = league average) · 64.5 points a game in 21 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
AFA offensevsUNLV defense
AFA offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · UNLV defense in 1
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.42
#6Stronger
+0.20
#82
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.20
#17Stronger
+0.17
#121
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
51%
#7slight
33%
#17
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.60
#12Stronger
3.78
#79
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
9.0%
#2Stronger
14.9%
#85
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#27
1.71
slight#22
UNLV offensevsAFA defense
UNLV offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (6 by a clear margin) · AFA defense in 0
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 106 places
+0.32
#29Stronger
+0.46
#135
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 122 places
+0.21
#13Stronger
+0.27
#135
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 106 places
45%
#28Stronger
50%
#134
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.45
#18Stronger
4.28
#121
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.0%
#81Stronger
10.7%
#132
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.21
#61Stronger
0.83
#115
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
AFA offenseUNLV defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors AFA
+0.42#6▼
+0.20#82▼
Pass success ratefavors AFA
47%#19
43%#95
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors AFA
2.13#2
1.56#68
Yards / pass attemptfavors AFA
10.6#1▼
7.7#104
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors AFA
17.7%#1▼
10.2%#75
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors UNLV
Points in the 1st half:AFA scores 43% · allows 42%UNLV scores 53% · allows 50%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
AFAUNLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
AFA6 games
Scored15.5
Allowed12.8
Pass share13%
6–19% · 192 plays
UNLV9 games
Scored12.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share33%
30–37% · 266 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
AFA4 games
Scored16.8
Allowed15.0
Pass share17%
6–27% · 108 plays
UNLV1 game · small sample
Scored19.0
Allowed13.0
Pass share55%
38 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
AFA7 games
Scored18.3
Allowed18.6
Pass share29%
23–35% · 252 plays
UNLV7 games
Scored15.7
Allowed17.6
Pass share51%
45–57% · 218 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
AFAat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 7 (of 17)
5.5
5.8Q1
7.3
5.8Q2
12.8scored11.6allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.9
6.6Q3
10.5
8.8Q4
UNLVat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.6
6.4Q1
11.9
6.9Q2
16.5scored13.4allowedleague 14.6
1st half
6.0
7.4Q3
8.1
6.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
AFAUNLV
4-8
Record
10-4
29.8
Points for / game
34.1
30.3
Points against / game
28.0
2-4 / 2-4
Home / road
5-1 / 5-3
W L L W L
Last 5
L L W W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 12–14 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
AFAUNLV
−3.2
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+4.3
0.233
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.247
0.366
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.146
47% / 50%
Success rate (off / def)
47% / 44%
1.22 / 1.36
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.33 / 1.33
0
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
701
63%
Returning production
15%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
AFAUNLV
4-11 · 27%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-4 · 43%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), AFA 24 games, UNLV 28. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0AFAseriesUNLV2
Avg total points
78.5
Meetings
2
They meet only some seasons (2 of the 4 in our history). UNLV have won the last 2.
2025AFA 48 at UNLV 51UNLV
2023UNLV 31 at AFA 27UNLV
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
