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The Liberty (26-18) host the Dream (30-14) on Oct 11, 2026, 2:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
ATL offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · NY defense in 1 · 1 even
NY offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 15 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
ATLNY
Expected pace: about 83 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 15 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
ATLNYNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Breanna Stewart's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhyne Howard | 33.5 | 19.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Allisha Gray | 32.1 | 19.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Angel Reese | 31.8 | 17.0 | 12.8 | 3.5 |
| Jordin Canada | 30.4 | 12.6 | 3.2 | 6.4 |
| Naz Hillmon | 27.6 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 20.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 |
| Brionna Jones | 16.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Isobel Borlase | 13.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 31.6 | 19.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 28.5 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 5.3 |
| Leonie Fiebich | 27.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| Jonquel Jones | 26.0 | 14.9 | 9.2 | 2.3 |
| Pauline Astier | 22.3 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Rebecca Allen | 20.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 |
| Marine Johannes | 16.1 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Han Xu | 15.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.7 |
ATL offenseper gameNY defenseRank among 15 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2026 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
ATL offense vs NY defenseNY offense vs ATL defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
ATLForAgainst47% of ATL's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
NYForAgainst49% of NY's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
ATL 5series5 NY| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | NY 82 | ATL 92 | ATL+10 | +10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | ATL 83 | NY 65 | ATL+18 | +18 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | ATL 95 | NY 84 | ATL+11 | +11 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | NY 104 | ATL 90 | NY+14 | +14 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | NY 62 | ATL 78 | ATL+16 | +16 |
| Jul 13, 2025 | ATL 72 | NY 79 | NY+7 | +7 |
| Jun 29, 2025 | NY 81 | ATL 90 | ATL+9 | +9 |
| Jun 17, 2025 | ATL 81 | NY 86 | NY+5 | +5 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2024 | ATL 82 | NY 91 | NY+9 | +9 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | ATL 69 | NY 83 | NY+14 | +14 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | ATL27-13 · last 40 games | NY23-17 · last 40 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd quarter points for | 22.3#4 of 15 | 19.9#13 of 15 | 21.2 |
| 4th quarter points against | 21.1#11 of 15 | 22.2#5 of 15 | 21.6 |
| Possessions per game | 84.0#5 of 15 | 82.5#9 of 15 | 83.0 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +8.3#3 of 15 | +2.6#7 of 15 | 0.0 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 15 ranked teams, over each team's last 40 regular-season games (May 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.