"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; "book" is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
Median sportsbook implied win probability (vig included) at each odds snapshot since we started tracking this fight. A rising line = money and respect moving toward that fighter.
The model makes Liu a narrow 52% favorite. Liu is most dangerous early — 2 of 3 tracked wins ended in the first round. Liu's most likely path is by KO/TKO (40%), and the fight goes the distance 11% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Liu: 100% of Rodrigues's wins come by knockout and 100% of Liu's losses have come the same way.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,500+ UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | L. Rodrigues to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | C. Liu to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | +165 | — | 1.5 | +155 / -200 |
| BetMGM | +165 | — | — | — / — |
| BetOnline | +161 | — | 1.5 | +165 / -190 |
| bodog | +163 | — | 1.5 | +175 / -230 |
| Bovada | +163 | — | 1.5 | +175 / -230 |
| DraftKings | +154 | — | 1.5 | +160 / -210 |
| FanDuel | +164 | — | 1.5 | +162 / -210 |
| Hard Rock | +165 | — | 1.5 | +170 / -240 |
| kalshi | +166 | — | 1.5 | -306 / -137 |
| LowVig | +161 | — | 1.5 | +165 / -190 |
| matchbook | +152 | — | — | — / — |
| pinnacle | +154 | — | 1.5 | +165 / -203 |
| polymarket | +163 | — | 1.5 | +170 / -178 |
| sportsbetting | +161 | — | 1.5 | +165 / -190 |
| unibet | +165 | — | 1.5 | +170 / -240 |