Probetrics — Sports Analytics
UFC Events · one-page card

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 13 fights · picks locked before each fight

Main card

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong
Bantamweight · 5 rds
Umar Nurmagomedov72%by decision-160· ML -520· goes the distance 69% (Yes -200)
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes
W Strawweight · 3 rds
Denise Gomes59%by decision+290· ML +130· goes the distance 68% (Yes -250)
Kai Asakura vs Aoriqileng
Bantamweight · 3 rds
Kai Asakura63%by decision+410· ML -444· ends early 57% (No -275)
Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji
Flyweight · 3 rds
Sumudaerji57%by decision+210· ML -215· goes the distance 62% (Yes +132)
Ce Liu vs Levi Rodrigues
· 3 rds
Ce Liu52%by KO/TKO· ML -195· ends early 89% (No -700)
Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas
Flyweight · 3 rds
Bilal Hasan73%by KO/TKO-135· ML -750· ends early 65% (No -240)

Prelims

Namsrai Batbayar vs Andre Lima
Flyweight · 3 rds
Andre Lima59%by decision+300· ML -250· ends early 51% (No -210)
Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas
Flyweight · 3 rds
Rei Tsuruya73%by submission+130· ML -700· ends early 54% (No -175)
Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins
Featherweight · 3 rds
Jack Jenkins52%by decision+310· ML +134· ends early 51% (No +124)
Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi
Bantamweight · 3 rds
Francesco Nuzzi53%by decision+400· ML +153· ends early 52% (No -106)
Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago
Bantamweight · 3 rds
Lawrence Lui66%by decision+200· ML -277· goes the distance 55% (Yes +120)
Jingnan Xiong vs Julia Polastri
W Strawweight · 3 rds
Julia Polastri65%by decision-145· ML -245· goes the distance 61% (Yes -350)
Ding Meng vs Cameron Nelson
Welterweight · 3 rds
Cameron Nelson57%by decision+350· ML +120· ends early 68% (No -185)

Build the card — method calls, priced

The model's method call for every fight at the best live price, ranked by edge. Use the filters to mix in moneylines, distance calls, or round-of-finish outcomes. The book carrying each price shows on hover.

Round-robin planner

Filters change what's listed; your ticked legs stay in the plan either way. Combos never pair two legs from the same fight. Green edge = the book pays more than the model's fair price; red = you're paying juice.

2-leg round robin — 15 combos × $4.00a hit pays $288.00–$572.00
3-leg round robin — 20 combos × $1.50a hit pays $1134.00–$2359.50
Single — $10.00 on Borjas by DEC +950pays $105.00
Show every combo — what must hit and what it pays

Each combo is its own bet: it pays only when everyleg in it wins. One busted leg kills that combo, but the others still stand. % is the model's chance all legs hit; $ is that combo's payout including stake.

2-leg combos · $4.00 each
Borjas by DEC +950 + Polastri by SUB +10004% → $462.00
Borjas by DEC +950 + Yadong by DEC +10004% → $462.00
Borjas by DEC +950 + Rojas by KO/TKO +12003% → $546.00
Borjas by DEC +950 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8005% → $378.00
Borjas by DEC +950 + Perez by DEC +7005% → $336.00
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Yadong by DEC +10003% → $484.00
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Rojas by KO/TKO +12002% → $572.00
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8004% → $396.00
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Perez by DEC +7004% → $352.00
Yadong by DEC +1000 + Rojas by KO/TKO +12002% → $572.00
Yadong by DEC +1000 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8003% → $396.00
Yadong by DEC +1000 + Perez by DEC +7003% → $352.00
Rojas by KO/TKO +1200 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8003% → $468.00
Rojas by KO/TKO +1200 + Perez by DEC +7003% → $416.00
Aoriqileng by DEC +800 + Perez by DEC +7004% → $288.00
3-leg combos · $1.50 each
Borjas by DEC +950 + Polastri by SUB +1000 + Yadong by DEC +10001% → $1905.75
Borjas by DEC +950 + Polastri by SUB +1000 + Rojas by KO/TKO +12001% → $2252.25
Borjas by DEC +950 + Polastri by SUB +1000 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8001% → $1559.25
Borjas by DEC +950 + Polastri by SUB +1000 + Perez by DEC +7001% → $1386.00
Borjas by DEC +950 + Yadong by DEC +1000 + Rojas by KO/TKO +12001% → $2252.25
Borjas by DEC +950 + Yadong by DEC +1000 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8001% → $1559.25
Borjas by DEC +950 + Yadong by DEC +1000 + Perez by DEC +7001% → $1386.00
Borjas by DEC +950 + Rojas by KO/TKO +1200 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8001% → $1842.75
Borjas by DEC +950 + Rojas by KO/TKO +1200 + Perez by DEC +7001% → $1638.00
Borjas by DEC +950 + Aoriqileng by DEC +800 + Perez by DEC +7001% → $1134.00
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Yadong by DEC +1000 + Rojas by KO/TKO +12000% → $2359.50
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Yadong by DEC +1000 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8001% → $1633.50
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Yadong by DEC +1000 + Perez by DEC +7001% → $1452.00
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Rojas by KO/TKO +1200 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8000% → $1930.50
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Rojas by KO/TKO +1200 + Perez by DEC +7001% → $1716.00
Polastri by SUB +1000 + Aoriqileng by DEC +800 + Perez by DEC +7001% → $1188.00
Yadong by DEC +1000 + Rojas by KO/TKO +1200 + Aoriqileng by DEC +8000% → $1930.50
Yadong by DEC +1000 + Rojas by KO/TKO +1200 + Perez by DEC +7000% → $1716.00
Yadong by DEC +1000 + Aoriqileng by DEC +800 + Perez by DEC +7001% → $1188.00
Rojas by KO/TKO +1200 + Aoriqileng by DEC +800 + Perez by DEC +7001% → $1404.00
Single
Borjas by DEC +95023% → $105.00
Model odds for this plan: 31% that 2+ legs hit (round robins cash) · 40% exactly one · 29% everything misses · 1.1 expected winning legs. Total staked $100.00. Counts assume your strongest leg per fight — keeping several legs in one fight adds combos but not extra fights that can hit.

A plan, not a bet slip — build it at your sportsbook at the listed prices or better. Positive EV means the model prices the outcome above the book; it does not mean the bet wins. Variance is violent at these odds. Bet only what you can afford to lose. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.

Every pick above was locked while the fight was still upcoming — the same numbers shown on fight pages, graded on the Results page after the card. Informational only. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.