"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; "book" is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Sola a narrow 51% favorite. On the feet, Sola sets the tempo — 4.4 significant strikes a minute to 2.8 — so Ziam needs moments, not volume. Ziam tends to settle in for the long haul — 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges. Sola's most likely path is on the scorecards (22%), and the fight goes the distance 51% of the time.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,500+ UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.