"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; "book" is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
The model makes Syguła a solid 64% favorite. On the feet, Syguła sets the tempo — 6.4 significant strikes a minute to 3.0 — so Cornolle needs moments, not volume. Cornolle is most dangerous early — 4 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Syguła's most likely path is on the scorecards (46%), and the fight goes the distance 57% of the time. The live danger for Syguła: 67% of Cornolle's wins come by knockout and 50% of Syguła's losses have come the same way.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,500+ UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.