Chandler vs Croden
Chelsea Chandler beat Melissa Croden by submission in round 1 at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott on Oct 17, 2026.
Rounds 2.5 · over −164 · under +134
5 US books
How it endsThe books' no-vig prices for every way the fight can end. The books price the round and the method separately (never a method inside a given round). Each number is the median chance across books with their margin removed; the price beside it is the best at a US sportsbook. The chance it is still going after a round is read off the round prices.Market
The books gave Croden 76% to win; it went the distance 49% of the time, and the likeliest single ending was Croden by decision (35.7%).
Outlined: the likeliest single ending. Still going: the chance it has not ended by the end of that round. Rounds line, no vig: over 2.5 rounds 59%. Tap a cell for its price.
How their last fights endedEach fighter's tracked fights before this one, oldest to newest.History
7-3 in the last 10. 4 of 7 wins inside the distance; 1 of 3 losses were finishes.
- WSubmission · R1vs Priscila CachoeiraJun 2026
- LKO/TKO · R1vs Joselyne EdwardsApr 2025
- LDecisionvs Yana SantosAug 2024
- WDecisionvs Josiane NunesMar 2024
- LDecisionvs Norma DumontJul 2023
7-3 in the last 10. 6 of 7 wins inside the distance; 0 of 3 losses were finishes.
- WDecisionvs Daria ZhelezniakovaApr 2026
- LDecisionvs Luana SantosDec 2025
- WKO/TKO · R3vs Tainara LisboaOct 2025
- WKO/TKO · R2LFA 195: Wetzell vs. UsmonovOct 2024
- WKO/TKO · R3LFA 169: Ward vs. WalkerOct 2023
Fight statsEach fighter's own numbers from this bout. A longer bar is a bigger number; volt marks the higher one.History
The strike and takedown numbers for this bout have not been stored yet; they usually arrive within a day of the result.
Rates against the divisionEach fighter's striking and grappling rates from his box-scored fights; the tick on each bar is the division average and a full bar is the division's top 5%. Hover a row for what it measures. A rate with no box scores behind it reads no data, never a zero.History
- 2.6Strikes landed / min4.22.6Strikes landed / min4.2
- 4.2Strikes absorbed / minlower is better2.64.2Strikes absorbed / minlower is better2.6
- 45%Striking accuracy47%45%Striking accuracy47%
- 40%Striking defense59%40%Striking defense59%
- 0.20Knockdowns / 15 min0.330.20Knockdowns / 15 min0.33
- 0.7Takedowns / 15 min1.90.7Takedowns / 15 min1.9
- 60%Takedown accuracy50%60%Takedown accuracy50%
- 25%Takedown defense67%25%Takedown defense67%
- 0.2Sub. attempts / 15 min0.40.2Sub. attempts / 15 min0.4
- 0.03Ground advances / 15 min0.060.03Ground advances / 15 min0.06
Tick: Women's Bantamweight average (35 fighters with 3+ tracked fights). Bars start at zero; a full bar is the division's top 5%. The better number of each row is bold.
Strike targets and paceStrike targets are the share of significant strikes to the head, body and legs. Pace is how long his tracked fights lasted and how often he finished early inside the first round.History
Chelsea Chandler
Form: 2-3 in his last 5 · on W1. Since his last fight: 4 mo.
- Wvs Priscila CachoeiraJun 6, 2026Submission · R1 · UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfimsig. str. 11/25 · abs. 7 · TD 0 · KD 1 · sub 1
- Lvs Joselyne EdwardsApr 26, 2025KO/TKO · R1 · UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Pratessig. str. 10/23 · abs. 30 · TD 0 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Lvs Yana SantosAug 10, 2024Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2sig. str. 56/124 · abs. 94 · TD 0 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Wvs Josiane NunesMar 16, 2024Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tyburasig. str. 58/130 · abs. 47 · TD 2/2 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Lvs Norma DumontJul 16, 2023Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silvasig. str. 22/61 · abs. 47 · TD 1/3 · KD 0 · sub 0
Melissa Croden
Form: 4-1 in his last 5 · on W1. Since his last fight: 6 mo.
- Wvs Daria ZhelezniakovaApr 18, 2026Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malottsig. str. 69/153 · abs. 41 · TD 4/8 · KD 0 · sub 1
- Lvs Luana SantosDec 14, 2025Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kapesig. str. 22/74 · abs. 12 · TD 0/1 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Wvs Tainara LisboaOct 18, 2025KO/TKO · R3 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allensig. str. 99/175 · abs. 42 · TD 2/3 · KD 1 · sub 0
- WLFA 195: Wetzell vs. UsmonovOct 26, 2024KO/TKO · R2no stats
- WLFA 169: Ward vs. WalkerOct 7, 2023KO/TKO · R3no stats
Chandler: full history · 11 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | vs Priscila CachoeiraUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim | WSubmission · R1 | 11/25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025-04-26 | vs Joselyne EdwardsUFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates | LKO/TKO · R1 | 10/23 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-08-10 | vs Yana SantosUFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 56/124 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-03-16 | vs Josiane NunesUFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 58/130 | 47 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-07-16 | vs Norma DumontUFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 22/61 | 47 | 1/3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-10-01 | vs Julija StoliarenkoUFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan | WKO/TKO · R1 | 38/70 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-05-12 | Invicta FC 47: Ducote vs. Zappitella | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2020-07-03 | Invicta FC 40: Ducote vs. Lima | WSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2019-06-08 | Invicta FC 35: Bennett vs. Rodriguez | WTKO (Punches) · R2 | no stats | ||||
| 2018-11-16 | Invicta FC 32: Spencer vs. Sorenson | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018-03-24 | Invicta FC 28: Inoue vs. Jandiroba | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Croden: full history · 11 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | vs Daria ZhelezniakovaUFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 69/153 | 41 | 4/8 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs Luana SantosUFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 22/74 | 12 | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | vs Tainara LisboaUFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen | WKO/TKO · R3 | 99/175 | 42 | 2/3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2024-10-26 | LFA 195: Wetzell vs. Usmonov | WKO/TKO · R2 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-10-07 | LFA 169: Ward vs. Walker | WKO/TKO · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-04-22 | vs Jacqueline CavalcantiLFA 157: Croden vs. Cavalcanti | LDecision - Unanimous · R5 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-08-27 | PAWFC: Pallas Athena Women's Fighting Championship 2 | WKO/TKO · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-01-15 | PAWFC: Pallas Athena Women's Fighting Championship 1 | WSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2021-02-13 | Titan FC 67: Sabatello vs. Blackshear | LDecision - Split · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2020-01-25 | Z Promotions - Fight Night 12: Lethbridge | WKO/TKO · R2 | no stats | ||||
| 2019-09-28 | Z Promotions - Fight Night 11: Lethbridge | WKO/TKO · R3 | no stats | ||||
Line shop (closing prices)Each US sportsbook's moneyline and rounds line; bold = the best price on that side.
| Book | Croden | Chandler | Rounds | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | −345 DraftKings | +310 BetMGM | 2.5 | −164 | +134 |
| BetMGM | −400 | +310 | — | — | — |
| DraftKings | −345 | +275 | 2.5 | −166 | +130 |
| FanDuel | −360 | +290 | 2.5 | −164 | +134 |
| Hard Rock | −350 | +260 | 2.5 | −165 | +125 |
| Caesars | −400 | +310 | — | — | — |
Line movementEach fighter's no-vig win chance from the median book, every hour since lines opened.
Median sportsbook win chance with the books' margin taken out (the same no-vig number as above, the two sides add to 100%), one point an hour since the line opened.
Median sportsbook win chance with the books' margin taken out (the same no-vig number as above, the two sides add to 100%), one point an hour since the line opened.
Fighter numbers are from tracked fights. Prices are the best at US sportsbooks and win chances take the margin out: the books' view, not a forecast. Descriptive data. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.