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Thomas Petersen vs Gabriel Lorenço Prediction · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, Nov 7, 2026

Fight data

Model pick: Thomas Petersen (60%), locked before the start; Thomas Petersen won (graded a hit).

Final5:00 PM ETUFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Heavyweight
Thomas Petersen12-5
Gabriel Lorenço8-2

The model's call

Locked before the fight
60%Thomas Petersenby KO/TKO✓ Hit

Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the market's no-vig price.

Result
Thomas Petersen
By KO/TKO in round 3
Closing price
-164
Right at this confidence
66%
Won 35 of 53 called at 60–70%

How it endsThe model's chance of each ending beside the books', round by round and by method.

prices before the fightModel vs market

The model's numbers here are recomputed from today's data; the pick locked before the fight is at the top.

KO/TKOSUBDEC
Lorenço
Petersen

Big number: the model's chance of that ending. Small number under it: the books' no-vig chance (— where they don't price it). Tap a cell for fair and best prices.

Fight clock · still going
17% reach the final bell (books 36%)
0255075100R1R2R3o1.5o2.5dist.553117Ended R3 4:47

Solid: the model. Dashed: the books' map. ◇ = a separate two-way price for the same thing: over 1.5 rounds 56% · over 2.5 rounds 43% · goes the distance 36%.

Their tracked fights before this one
History
Lorenço1 of 9 to the judges

8-1 in the last 9. 7 of 8 wins inside the distance; the loss was a finish.

  • WKO/TKO · R1vs Charlie ClevelandSep 2026
  • WKO/TKO · R1Curitiba Fight Pro 12Nov 2025
  • WSubmission · R1Saikyo 2: CuritibaOct 2025
  • WKO/TKO · R1Brazilian Cage Championship 1Jun 2025
  • WDecisionCidade da Luta 11Nov 2024
Petersen4 of 10 to the judges

6-4 in the last 10. 3 of 6 wins inside the distance; 3 of 4 losses were finishes.

  • LSubmission · R1vs Valter WalkerJul 2026
  • WDecisionvs Guilherme PatApr 2026
  • LKO/TKO · R3vs Vitor PetrinoOct 2025
  • WDecisionvs Don'Tale MayesMay 2025
  • LKO/TKO · R1vs Shamil GazievFeb 2025

5 of 19 of their tracked fights went the distance. For this one, the model gave 17% that it goes the distance, the books 36%. History, not a forecast.

How this fight plays outThe model's read of the matchup, in plain sentences from its numbers.

No price is posted for this fight, so the win chance is the model's own: Lorenço solid at 65%. Expect Petersen to chase the takedown (2.7/15 min at 42%) while Lorenço tries to keep it standing behind 100% takedown defense. Lorenço is most dangerous early — 7 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Lorenço's most likely path is by KO/TKO (47%), and the fight goes the distance 17% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Lorenço: 67% of Petersen's wins come by knockout and 100% of Lorenço's losses have come the same way.

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Where a bout is priced, the win chance is the sportsbooks' no-vig price. The model's own read (recent-fight form, styles and physical matchup) was tested on fights it was not tuned on and decides bouts nobody has priced. Model reads, not personalized advice. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.