Petersen vs Lorenço
Thomas Petersen beat Gabriel Lorenço by KO/TKO in round 3 at UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker on Nov 7, 2026.
Rounds 1.5 · over +100 · under +105
4 US books
How it endsThe books' no-vig prices for every way the fight can end. The books price the round and the method separately (never a method inside a given round). Each number is the median chance across books with their margin removed; the price beside it is the best at a US sportsbook. The chance it is still going after a round is read off the round prices.Market
The books gave Petersen 60% to win; it went the distance 36% of the time, and the likeliest single ending was Petersen by decision (23.6%).
Outlined: the likeliest single ending. Still going: the chance it has not ended by the end of that round. Rounds line, no vig: over 1.5 rounds 56%, over 2.5 rounds 43%. Tap a cell for its price.
How their last fights endedEach fighter's tracked fights before this one, oldest to newest.History
6-4 in the last 10. 3 of 6 wins inside the distance; 3 of 4 losses were finishes.
- LSubmission · R1vs Valter WalkerJul 2026
- WDecisionvs Guilherme PatApr 2026
- LKO/TKO · R3vs Vitor PetrinoOct 2025
- WDecisionvs Don'Tale MayesMay 2025
- LKO/TKO · R1vs Shamil GazievFeb 2025
8-1 in the last 9. 7 of 8 wins inside the distance; the loss was a finish.
- WKO/TKO · R1vs Charlie ClevelandSep 2026
- WKO/TKO · R1Curitiba Fight Pro 12Nov 2025
- WSubmission · R1Saikyo 2: CuritibaOct 2025
- WKO/TKO · R1Brazilian Cage Championship 1Jun 2025
- WDecisionCidade da Luta 11Nov 2024
Fight statsEach fighter's own numbers from this bout. A longer bar is a bigger number; volt marks the higher one.History
The strike and takedown numbers for this bout have not been stored yet; they usually arrive within a day of the result.
Rates against the divisionEach fighter's striking and grappling rates from his box-scored fights; the tick on each bar is the division average and a full bar is the division's top 5%. Hover a row for what it measures. A rate with no box scores behind it reads no data, never a zero.History
- 3.2Strikes landed / min4.83.2Strikes landed / min4.8
- 2.8Strikes absorbed / minlower is better3.92.8Strikes absorbed / minlower is better3.9
- 59%Striking accuracy47%59%Striking accuracy47%
- 55%Striking defense47%55%Striking defense47%
- 0.21Knockdowns / 15 min2.040.21Knockdowns / 15 min2.04
- 2.7Takedowns / 15 min1.32.7Takedowns / 15 min1.3
- 42%Takedown accuracyno data42%Takedown accuracyno data
- 88%Takedown defense100%88%Takedown defense100%
- 0.4Sub. attempts / 15 min0.40.4Sub. attempts / 15 min0.4
- 0.04Ground advances / 15 min0.200.04Ground advances / 15 min0.20
Tick: Heavyweight average (69 fighters with 3+ tracked fights). Bars start at zero; a full bar is the division's top 5%. The better number of each row is bold. Grey rates are a small sample: under 30 tracked minutes behind them.
Strike targets and paceStrike targets are the share of significant strikes to the head, body and legs. Pace is how long his tracked fights lasted and how often he finished early inside the first round.History
Thomas Petersen
Form: 2-3 in his last 5 · on L1. Since his last fight: 4 mo.
- LSubmission · R1 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskovsig. str. 0/1 · abs. 1 · TD 0/1 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Wvs Guilherme PatApr 4, 2026Decision - Majority · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncansig. str. 28/41 · abs. 17 · TD 0/5 · KD 1 · sub 0
- Lvs Vitor PetrinoOct 11, 2025KO/TKO · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrotsig. str. 16/35 · abs. 31 · TD 0/8 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Wvs Don'Tale MayesMay 3, 2025Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredosig. str. 28/51 · abs. 3 · TD 9/9 · KD 0 · sub 1
- Lvs Shamil GazievFeb 1, 2025KO/TKO · R1 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavovsig. str. 19/34 · abs. 14 · TD 1/1 · KD 0 · sub 0
Gabriel Lorenço
Form: 5-0 in his last 5 · on W8. Since his last fight: 67 d.
- WKO/TKO · R1 · Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4sig. str. 20/43 · abs. 8 · TD 0 · KD 2 · sub 0
- WCuritiba Fight Pro 12Nov 15, 2025KO/TKO · R1no stats
- WSaikyo 2: CuritibaOct 18, 2025Submission (Guillotine) · R1no stats
- WBrazilian Cage Championship 1Jun 28, 2025TKO (Injury) · R1no stats
- WCidade da Luta 11Nov 30, 2024Decision - Unanimous · R3no stats
Petersen: full history · 12 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | vs Valter WalkerUFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov | LSubmission · R1 | 0/1 | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | vs Guilherme PatUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan | WDecision - Majority · R3 | 28/41 | 17 | 0/5 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | vs Vitor PetrinoUFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot | LKO/TKO · R3 | 16/35 | 31 | 0/8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | vs Don'Tale MayesUFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 28/51 | 3 | 9/9 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025-02-01 | vs Shamil GazievUFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov | LKO/TKO · R1 | 19/34 | 14 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-07-20 | vs Mohammed UsmanUFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 76/138 | 63 | 2/5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-02-03 | vs Jamal PoguesUFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 58/86 | 65 | 1/6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-08-30 | Dana White's Contender Series: Season 7, Week 4 | WSubmission · R2 | 22/30 | 15 | 3/3 | 0 | 1 |
| 2023-01-14 | LFA 150: Farias vs. Sweeney | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-09-17 | LFA 142: Amorim vs. Nichols | WKO/TKO · R2 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-04-16 | LFA 129: Petersen vs. Cortes-Acosta | LKO/TKO · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2021-07-31 | LFA 113: Lewis vs. Petersen | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
Lorenço: full history · 9 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | vs Charlie ClevelandDana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 | WKO/TKO · R1 | 20/43 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Curitiba Fight Pro 12 | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2025-10-18 | Saikyo 2: Curitiba | WSubmission (Guillotine) · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2025-06-28 | Brazilian Cage Championship 1 | WTKO (Injury) · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2024-11-30 | Cidade da Luta 11 | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2024-09-29 | Master Fighting Championship 1 | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-11-12 | X-Fest 19: Quardos vs. Boeno | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2021-12-18 | Inside Fighters League 7 | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2021-10-17 | Inside Fighters League 5 | LKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
Line shop (closing prices)Each US sportsbook's moneyline and rounds line; bold = the best price on that side.
| Book | Lorenço | Petersen | Rounds | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | +145 BetMGM | −158 FanDuel | 1.5 | +100 | +105 |
| BetMGM | +145 | −180 | — | — | — |
| DraftKings | +136 | −162 | 1.5 | +100 | −130 |
| FanDuel | +136 | −158 | 2.5 | +124 | −150 |
| Hard Rock | +130 | −160 | 1.5 | −140 | +105 |
Line movementEach fighter's no-vig win chance from the median book, every hour since lines opened.
Median sportsbook win chance with the books' margin taken out (the same no-vig number as above, the two sides add to 100%), one point an hour since the line opened.
Median sportsbook win chance with the books' margin taken out (the same no-vig number as above, the two sides add to 100%), one point an hour since the line opened.
Fighter numbers are from tracked fights. Prices are the best at US sportsbooks and win chances take the margin out: the books' view, not a forecast. Descriptive data. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.