"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; "book" is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
Median sportsbook implied win probability (vig included) at each odds snapshot since we started tracking this fight. A rising line = money and respect moving toward that fighter.
The model makes Pagliarulo a solid 64% favorite. Expect Pagliarulo to chase the takedown (2.3/15 min at 38%) while Mulumba tries to keep it standing behind 67% takedown defense. Pagliarulo is most dangerous early — 8 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. Pagliarulo's most likely path is by KO/TKO (50%), and the fight goes the distance 18% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Pagliarulo: Mulumba finishes 50% of wins by submission and Pagliarulo has been submitted in 50% of losses.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,500+ UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.