"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome — compare it to your book's method-of-victory market: a book price longer than fair is value if you trust the model. (Our odds feed doesn't carry method markets, so we can't auto-compare yet.)
Median sportsbook implied win probability (vig included) at each odds snapshot since we started tracking this fight. A rising line = money and respect moving toward that fighter.
The model makes Ko a narrow 51% favorite. Expect Ko to chase the takedown (1.9/15 min at 63%) while Lebosnoyani tries to keep it standing. Lebosnoyani is most dangerous early — 7 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Ko's most likely path is by KO/TKO (31%), and the fight goes the distance 31% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,535 UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | J. Lebosnoyani to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | S. Ko to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 | — | — / — |
| BetOnline | +150 | -175 | 2.5 | -155 / +135 |
| BetRivers | +170 | -215 | — | — / — |
| Bovada | +160 | -185 | 2.5 | -170 / +130 |
| DraftKings | +154 | -185 | 2.5 | -166 / +130 |
| FanDuel | +168 | -200 | — | — / — |
| Caesars | +145 | -175 | — | — / — |