Books price Coria at 88% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +16.2% on NicollEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
The model makes Coria a clear 71% favorite, cooler than the market's 88% — the value sits with Nicoll. Striking volume is near even (1.0 vs 1.1 per minute), so the fight likely turns on damage rather than output. Nicoll is most dangerous early — 5 of 8 tracked wins ended in the first round. Coria's most likely path is on the scorecards (26%), and the fight goes the distance 39% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk. The live danger for Coria: Nicoll finishes 38% of wins by submission and Coria has been submitted in 33% of losses.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,523 UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 192 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | S. Nicoll to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | A. Coria to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | +675 | -1000 | — | — / — |
| BetUS | +625 | -1000 | — | — / — |
| FanDuel | +630 | -1200 | — | — / — |
