Books price McMillen at 49% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +25.6% on McMillenEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
The model makes McMillen a clear 75% favorite, more confident than the market's 49%. On the feet, McMillen sets the tempo — 6.0 significant strikes a minute to 0.9 — so Montes needs moments, not volume. McMillen is most dangerous early — 9 of 10 tracked wins ended in the first round. McMillen's most likely path is by KO/TKO (34%), and the fight goes the distance 30% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,523 UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 192 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | A. Montes to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | T. McMillen to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | -110 | -110 | — | — / — |
| BetUS | -110 | -110 | — | — / — |
| FanDuel | -125 | -102 | — | — / — |
