The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
53%Washington State CougarsLean✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Fresno State Bulldogs 53%, the other way, so the margin and score here are the model's own read and lean opposite the pick.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
FRES by 1.4market WSU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.0 pointsmarket 44.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington State Cougars at 53% to win, with the market at WSU by 2.5.
Counterpoint: passing favours FRES. FRES passing ranks #25, WSU defends it at #73; the other way WSU #135 into FRES's #18. The pick still lands on WSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: FRES has the better last five games by 17.4 points a game (WSU -6.0, FRES +11.4).
Home field is with WSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it FRES by 1.4 against a market WSU by 2.5: 3.9 points of daylight in FRES's favour. The model's total is 42.0 against a line of 44.5: 2.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model FRES by 1.4 · market WSU by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES passing ranks #25, WSU defends it at #73; the other way WSU #135 into FRES's #18.
Rushing game
=
Even
FRES rushing ranks #127, WSU defends it at #68; the other way WSU #113 into FRES's #33.
Third down & red zone
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES third-down conversion ranks #97, WSU defends it at #92; the other way WSU #133 into FRES's #39.
Big plays
FRES
Slight advantage
FRES pass explosiveness ranks #68, WSU defends it at #69; the other way WSU #133 into FRES's #27.
Pass protection & rush
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES sack rate ranks #20, WSU defends it at #126; the other way WSU #123 into FRES's #36.
Ball security
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES turnovers / game ranks #21, WSU defends it at #111; the other way WSU #119 into FRES's #4.
Form (last 5)
FRES
Clear advantage
WSU −6.0 per game over the last five, FRES +11.4.
Market
WSU
Slight advantage
Consensus has WSU by 2.5; the model says FRES by 1.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WSU by 2.5 · model FRES by 1.4
Mkt WSU 2.5
Model FRES 1.4
← FRES by 28tieWSU by 28 →
4.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 42.0
Mkt 44.5
Model 42.0
24 pts6096 pts
5.4% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 42.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
WSU -1.5
→
Market maker now
WSU -2
▲ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
WSU -2.25
in line
22 moves8 books3 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: WSU -2 → WSU -2.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still WSU -1.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel agrees
Opened
46.5
→
Market maker now
45
▼ 1 since open
→
Retail now
44.8
in line
16 moves8 books1 led
Tue, Sep 29, 1:48 PM first sharp move: 46.5 → 46
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 46.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
