The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
51%Army Black KnightsLean✗
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Army Black Knights 57%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ARMY by 3.0market LT by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.3 pointsmarket 46.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Army Black Knights at 51% to win, with the market at LT by 1.5.
ARMY has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ARMY points / scoring opportunity ranks #53, LT defends it at #89; the other way LT #59 into ARMY's #20.
ARMY has the advantage in rushing: ARMY rushing ranks #3, LT defends it at #113; the other way LT #88 into ARMY's #131.
Counterpoint: passing favours LT. LT passing ranks #71, ARMY defends it at #108; the other way ARMY #89 into LT's #46. The pick still lands on ARMY because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: LT has 6 more days since its last game (LT 14d, ARMY 8d).
Home field is with LT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ARMY by 3.0 against a market LT by 1.5: 4.5 points of daylight in ARMY's favour. The model's total is 47.3 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ARMY by 3.0 · market LT by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor LT, but the model still picks ARMY. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LT
Clear advantage
LT passing ranks #71, ARMY defends it at #108; the other way ARMY #89 into LT's #46.
Rushing game
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY rushing ranks #3, LT defends it at #113; the other way LT #88 into ARMY's #131.
Third down & red zone
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY points / scoring opportunity ranks #53, LT defends it at #89; the other way LT #59 into ARMY's #20.
Big plays
LT
Slight advantage
LT pass explosiveness ranks #47, ARMY defends it at #90; the other way ARMY #124 into LT's #97.
Pass protection & rush
LT
Slight advantage
LT sack rate ranks #89, ARMY defends it at #128; the other way ARMY #41 into LT's #26.
Ball security
LT
Clear advantage
LT turnovers / game ranks #76, ARMY defends it at #137; the other way ARMY #17 into LT's #14.
Form (last 5)
ARMY
Clear advantage
LT +7.0 per game over the last five, ARMY +13.5.
Market
LT
Slight advantage
Consensus has LT by 1.5; the model says ARMY by 3.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LT by 1.5 · model ARMY by 3.0
Mkt LT 1.5
Model ARMY 3.0
← ARMY by 28tieLT by 28 →
4.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 47.3
Mkt 46.5
Model 47.3
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 47.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: LTModel disagrees
Opened
ARMY -3.5
→
Market maker now
LT -0.5
▲ 3 since open
→
Retail now
LT -1
0.5 behind
31 moves8 books9 led
Mon, Sep 28, 10:10 AM first sharp move: ARMY -3.5 → ARMY -3
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still ARMY -3.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
46.5
→
Market maker now
46
▼ 1.3 since open
→
Retail now
45.8
in line
24 moves8 books5 led
Mon, Sep 28, 1:49 PM first sharp move: 47 → 46
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 46.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
