Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Kennesaw State Owls
1-2
Model predicts
25 – 26
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium · 79° · Intermittent clouds
Arkansas State Red Wolves
1-2
Spread ARST -6.5 (opened ARST -5.5)Total 52.5Moneyline KENN +200 · ARST -2407 books · best KENN +211 betonlineag · ARST -235 betmgm
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WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
ARST -240
54%
model margin ARST by 1.8
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
KENN +6.5
52%
4.7 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 52.5
51%
model total 50.9 · best under 53 at betonlineag
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has ARST winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, KENN. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: KENN passing ranks #104, ARST defends it at #134; the other way ARST #122 into KENN's #106. The model lands on ARST by 1.8 against a market ARST by 6.5, so the spread lean is KENN by 4.7 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: ARST by 1.8 · market ARST by 6.5
Passing game
Slight edge
KENN
KENN passing ranks #104, ARST defends it at #134; the other way ARST #122 into KENN's #106.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
ARST rushing ranks #56, KENN defends it at #102; the other way KENN #33 into ARST's #59.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
KENN third-down conversion ranks #87, ARST defends it at #126; the other way ARST #43 into KENN's #27.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
ARST +1.0 per game over the last five, KENN 0.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
ARST
Consensus has ARST by 6.5; the model says ARST by 1.8.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ARST by 6.5 · model ARST by 1.8
Mkt ARST 6.5
Model ARST 1.8
-28028

11.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 52.5 · model 50.9
Mkt 52.5
Model 50.9
246096

6.1% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 50.9 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: ARST · model disagrees
Opened
ARST -5
Pinnacle now
ARST -6.5(+2.3)
Retail now
ARST -6.5
Moves
27 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Mon 1:20 PM: ARST -4 → ARST -5.5, 5 books followed within six hours; retail was still ARST -4.5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model agrees
Opened
54
Pinnacle now
52.8(-0.8)
Retail now
52.5
Moves
17 across 7 books · 7 led

First sharp move Tue 1:20 PM: 53.5 → 52.5, 2 books followed within six hours; retail was still 52.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.