Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Robert Morris Colonials
0-1
Model predicts
17 – 34
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Broadview Stadium · 72° · 13 mph wind · Partly sunny
Buffalo Bulls
1-2
Spread BUFF -28.5 (opened BUFF -29)Total 45.5Moneyline RMU +2000 · BUFF -70004 books · best RMU +2250 hardrockbet · BUFF -6500 draftkings
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
BUFF -7000
84%
model margin BUFF by 17.2
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
RMU +28.5
54%
11.3 pts from the number · best RMU +29.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 45.5
52%
model total 50.5 · best over 45 at betonlineag
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has BUFF winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, RMU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The model lands on BUFF by 17.2 against a market BUFF by 28.5, so the spread lean is RMU by 11.3 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 50.5 against 45.5.

Who has the edge

Model: BUFF by 17.2 · market BUFF by 28.5
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
BUFF
BUFF −17.0 per game over the last five, RMU −35.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
BUFF
Consensus has BUFF by 28.5; the model says BUFF by 17.2.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BUFF by 28.5 · model BUFF by 17.2
Mkt BUFF 28.5
Model BUFF 17.2
-28028

14.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 45.5 · model 50.5
Mkt 45.5
Model 50.5
246096

10.6% of FBS games finish between 45.5 and 50.5 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
BUFF -29
Pinnacle now
BUFF -28.5
Retail now
BUFF -28.5
Moves
2 across 4 books · 1 led
Total
Sharp side: the over · model agrees
Opened
44.5
Pinnacle now
45(+0.5)
Retail now
45.5-0.5 behind
Moves
4 across 4 books · 1 led

First sharp move Wed 6:11 PM: 44.5 → 45, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 44.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.