Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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James Madison Dukes
3-0
Model predicts
27 – 17
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium · 71° · 18 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
Old Dominion Monarchs
1-2
Spread JMU -6 (opened JMU -4.5)Total 44.5Moneyline JMU -225 · ODU +1857 books · best JMU -215 betonlineag · ODU +190 hardrockbet
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
JMU -225
72%
model margin JMU by 10.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
JMU -6
51%
4.3 pts from the number · best JMU -5.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Under 44.5
50%
model total 43.6 · best under 45.5 at fanduel

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: JMU passing ranks #56, ODU defends it at #54; the other way ODU #129 into JMU's #15. The model lands on JMU by 10.3 against a market JMU by 6, so the spread lean is JMU by 4.3 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: JMU by 10.3 · market JMU by 6
Passing game
Clear edge
JMU
JMU passing ranks #56, ODU defends it at #54; the other way ODU #129 into JMU's #15.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
JMU
JMU rushing ranks #54, ODU defends it at #13; the other way ODU #114 into JMU's #38.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
JMU
JMU third-down conversion ranks #69, ODU defends it at #57; the other way ODU #94 into JMU's #76.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
JMU
ODU −1.7 per game over the last five, JMU +34.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
JMU
Consensus has JMU by 6; the model says JMU by 10.3.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket JMU by 6 · model JMU by 10.3
Mkt JMU 6
Model JMU 10.3
-28028

6.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The market is on 6, a number 2.8% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 44.5 · model 43.6
Mkt 44.5
Model 43.6
246096

2.3% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 43.6 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: JMU · model agrees
Opened
JMU -4.5
Pinnacle now
JMU -6(-1.3)
Retail now
JMU -6
Moves
21 across 7 books · 5 led

First sharp move Mon 4:20 AM: JMU -5 → JMU -6, 5 books followed within six hours; retail was still JMU -5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model agrees
Opened
50
Pinnacle now
44.8(-3)
Retail now
44.5
Moves
24 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Sun 5:44 PM: 47.5 → 47, 1 book followed within six hours; retail was still 48.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.