Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Ball State Cardinals
1-2
Model predicts
28 – 34
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium · 64° · Sunny
Kent State Golden Flashes
1-2
Spread KENT -3 (opened KENT -4.5)Total 50.5Moneyline BALL +130 · KENT -1557 books · best BALL +135 bovada · KENT -144 fanduel
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
KENT -155
65%
model margin KENT by 6.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
KENT -3
51%
3.6 pts from the number · best KENT -2.5 at hardrockbet
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 50.5
54%
model total 61.7

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: BALL rushing ranks #39, KENT defends it at #129; the other way KENT #116 into BALL's #133. The model lands on KENT by 6.6 against a market KENT by 3, so the spread lean is KENT by 3.6 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 61.7 against 50.5.

Who has the edge

Model: KENT by 6.6 · market KENT by 3
Passing game
Slight edge
KENT
KENT passing ranks #115, BALL defends it at #122; the other way BALL #106 into KENT's #65.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
BALL
BALL rushing ranks #39, KENT defends it at #129; the other way KENT #116 into BALL's #133.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
KENT
KENT third-down conversion ranks #76, BALL defends it at #123; the other way BALL #134 into KENT's #26.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
BALL
KENT −30.7 per game over the last five, BALL −21.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
KENT
Consensus has KENT by 3; the model says KENT by 6.6.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket KENT by 3 · model KENT by 6.6
Mkt KENT 3
Model KENT 6.6
-28028

4.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 50.5 · model 61.7
Mkt 50.5
Model 61.7
246096

25.3% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 61.7 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
KENT -3.5
Pinnacle now
KENT -3
Retail now
KENT -3
Moves
17 across 7 books

First sharp move Sun 11:22 PM: KENT -3 → KENT -3.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still KENT -3.5.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model agrees
Opened
50.5
Pinnacle now
50.8(+1.5)
Retail now
50.5
Moves
22 across 7 books · 9 led

First sharp move Mon 3:13 PM: 49 → 49.5, 6 books followed within six hours; retail was still 49.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.