Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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UNLV Rebels
1-2
Model predicts
30 – 17
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium · 65° · 10 mph wind · Sunny
Akron Zips
1-2
Spread UNLV -13.5 (opened UNLV -14)Total 52.5Moneyline UNLV -550 · AKR +4007 books · best UNLV -525 betonlineag · AKR +410 draftkings
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UNLV -550
77%
model margin UNLV by 12.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
AKR +13.5
50%
0.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 52.5
52%
model total 46.6 · best under 53 at betonlineag
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has UNLV winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, AKR. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: AKR rushing ranks #110, UNLV defends it at #112; the other way UNLV #108 into AKR's #17. The model lands on UNLV by 12.7, essentially the market's number — no spread lean. On the total the model sees 46.6 against 52.5.

Who has the edge

Model: UNLV by 12.7 · market UNLV by 13.5
Passing game
Slight edge
UNLV
UNLV passing ranks #120, AKR defends it at #130; the other way AKR #111 into UNLV's #82.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
AKR
AKR rushing ranks #110, UNLV defends it at #112; the other way UNLV #108 into AKR's #17.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
AKR
AKR third-down conversion ranks #91, UNLV defends it at #104; the other way UNLV #105 into AKR's #81.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
AKR
AKR −7.0 per game over the last five, UNLV −9.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
UNLV
Consensus has UNLV by 13.5; the model says UNLV by 12.7.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNLV by 13.5 · model UNLV by 12.7
Mkt UNLV 13.5
Model UNLV 12.7
-28028

1.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 52.5 · model 46.6
Mkt 52.5
Model 46.6
246096

15.3% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 46.6 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
UNLV -14.5
Pinnacle now
UNLV -13.5
Retail now
UNLV -13.5
Moves
18 across 7 books · 5 led

First sharp move Mon 7:20 AM: UNLV -13.5 → UNLV -12.5, 2 books followed within six hours; retail was still UNLV -13.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model disagrees
Opened
49.5
Pinnacle now
52.8(+2.3)
Retail now
52.5
Moves
19 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Mon 9:16 AM: 50 → 51.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 49.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.