Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Northern Illinois Huskies
0-3
Model predicts
25 – 32
Sat, Sep 26, 2:00 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium · 80° · Mostly sunny
Georgia State Panthers
2-1
Spread GAST -10.5 (opened GAST -8.5)Total 56Moneyline NIU +310 · GAST -4007 books · best NIU +325 hardrockbet · GAST -375 betonlineag
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Solid
GAST -400
66%
model margin GAST by 6.9
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
NIU +10.5
51%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Over 56
50%
model total 57.2 · best over 55.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has GAST winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, NIU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: GAST passing ranks #44, NIU defends it at #121; the other way NIU #123 into GAST's #26. The model lands on GAST by 6.9 against a market GAST by 10.5, so the spread lean is NIU by 3.6 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: GAST by 6.9 · market GAST by 10.5
Passing game
Clear edge
GAST
GAST passing ranks #44, NIU defends it at #121; the other way NIU #123 into GAST's #26.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
GAST
GAST rushing ranks #35, NIU defends it at #119; the other way NIU #117 into GAST's #128.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
GAST
GAST third-down conversion ranks #21, NIU defends it at #137; the other way NIU #118 into GAST's #17.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
GAST
GAST +16.3 per game over the last five, NIU −23.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
GAST
Consensus has GAST by 10.5; the model says GAST by 6.9.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket GAST by 10.5 · model GAST by 6.9
Mkt GAST 10.5
Model GAST 6.9
-28028

9.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 56 · model 57.2
Mkt 56
Model 57.2
246096

2.1% of FBS games finish between 56 and 57.2 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: GAST · model disagrees
Opened
GAST -9
Pinnacle now
GAST -10.25(+0.5)
Retail now
GAST -10.5
Moves
12 across 7 books

First sharp move Mon 6:30 PM: GAST -10 → GAST -10.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still GAST -10.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model agrees
Opened
55
Pinnacle now
56(+1)
Retail now
56.5-0.5 behind
Moves
23 across 7 books

First sharp move Sun 11:22 PM: 55 → 57, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 54.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.