Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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UCLA Bruins
3-0
Model predicts
26 – 26
Sat, Sep 26, 1:30 PM ET
SECU Stadium · 70° · 18 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
Maryland Terrapins
2-1
Spread UCLA -1.5Total 56.5Moneyline UCLA -120 · MD +1007 books · best UCLA -119 pinnacle · MD +104 pinnacle
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
MD +100
50%
model margin MD by 0.0
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean
MD +1.5
51%
1.5 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 56.5
52%
model total 51.1 · best under 57 at betonlineag

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: UCLA rushing ranks #2, MD defends it at #35; the other way MD #62 into UCLA's #40. The model lands on MD by 0.0 against a market UCLA by 1.5, so the spread lean is MD by 1.5 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 51.1 against 56.5.

Who has the edge

Model: MD by 0.0 · market UCLA by 1.5
Passing game
Even
—
MD passing ranks #38, UCLA defends it at #70; the other way UCLA #103 into MD's #112.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
UCLA
UCLA rushing ranks #2, MD defends it at #35; the other way MD #62 into UCLA's #40.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
UCLA
UCLA third-down conversion ranks #8, MD defends it at #91; the other way MD #12 into UCLA's #73.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MD
MD +25.7 per game over the last five, UCLA +17.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
UCLA
Consensus has UCLA by 1.5; the model says MD by 0.0.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UCLA by 1.5 · model MD by 0.0
Mkt UCLA 1.5
Model MD 0.0
-28028

1.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 56.5 · model 51.1
Mkt 56.5
Model 51.1
246096

11.0% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 51.1 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: MD · model agrees
Opened
UCLA -1.5
Pinnacle now
UCLA -1.25(+1)
Retail now
UCLA -1.5
Moves
13 across 7 books

First sharp move Mon 10:58 PM: UCLA -2.5 → UCLA -2, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still UCLA -2.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model agrees
Opened
51.5
Pinnacle now
57(-1.3)
Retail now
56.5+0.5 behind
Moves
19 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Sun 6:14 PM: 58.5 → 57.5, 2 books followed within six hours; retail was still 58.5.Steam Sun 6:14 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.