Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Delaware Blue Hens
2-1
Model predicts
15 – 30
Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium · 72° · 14 mph wind · Partly sunny
Virginia Cavaliers
2-1
Spread UVA -19.5 (opened UVA -20.5)Total 52.5Moneyline DEL +810 · UVA -13007 books · best DEL +850 draftkings · UVA -1200 betmgm
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
UVA -1300
81%
model margin UVA by 15.2
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
DEL +19.5
52%
4.3 pts from the number · best DEL +20 at pinnacle
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Under 52.5
52%
model total 45.8
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has UVA winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, DEL. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: UVA rushing ranks #14, DEL defends it at #45; the other way DEL #100 into UVA's #66. The model lands on UVA by 15.2 against a market UVA by 19.5, so the spread lean is DEL by 4.3 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 45.8 against 52.5.

Who has the edge

Model: UVA by 15.2 · market UVA by 19.5
Passing game
Slight edge
UVA
UVA passing ranks #36, DEL defends it at #77; the other way DEL #59 into UVA's #58.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
UVA
UVA rushing ranks #14, DEL defends it at #45; the other way DEL #100 into UVA's #66.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
UVA third-down conversion ranks #114, DEL defends it at #60; the other way DEL #109 into UVA's #53.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UVA
UVA +23.7 per game over the last five, DEL +11.3.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
UVA
Consensus has UVA by 19.5; the model says UVA by 15.2.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UVA by 19.5 · model UVA by 15.2
Mkt UVA 19.5
Model UVA 15.2
-28028

5.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 52.5 · model 45.8
Mkt 52.5
Model 45.8
246096

16.6% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 45.8 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
UVA -20.5
Pinnacle now
UVA -19.75(+0.3)
Retail now
UVA -19.5
Moves
14 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Wed 4:13 PM: UVA -19 → UVA -19.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still UVA -19.5.

Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
55
Pinnacle now
52.5
Retail now
52.5
Moves
17 across 7 books · 9 led

First sharp move Mon 1:20 PM: 52.5 → 51.5, 5 books followed within six hours; retail was still 52.5.Steam Mon 1:20 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.