Probetrics — Sports Analytics
← College Football picksGame data: lines, stats, form →
Minnesota Golden Gophers
2-1
Model predicts
13 – 32
Sat, Sep 26, 11:00 PM ET
Husky Stadium · 57° · Partly cloudy
Washington Huskies
3-0
Spread WASH -10 (opened WASH -9.5)Total 45.5Moneyline MINN +302 · WASH -3867 books · best MINN +325 hardrockbet · WASH -375 betmgm
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
WASH -386
87%
model margin WASH by 19.4
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
WASH -10
53%
9.4 pts from the number · best WASH -9.5 at fanduel
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 45.5
50%
model total 45.6

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: WASH rushing ranks #95, MINN defends it at #103; the other way MINN #106 into WASH's #11. The model lands on WASH by 19.4 against a market WASH by 10, so the spread lean is WASH by 9.4 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: WASH by 19.4 · market WASH by 10
Passing game
Clear edge
WASH
WASH passing ranks #67, MINN defends it at #76; the other way MINN #82 into WASH's #12.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
WASH
WASH rushing ranks #95, MINN defends it at #103; the other way MINN #106 into WASH's #11.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
MINN third-down conversion ranks #52, WASH defends it at #29; the other way WASH #84 into MINN's #50.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
MINN
WASH +16.0 per game over the last five, MINN +20.3.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
WASH
Consensus has WASH by 10; the model says WASH by 19.4.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WASH by 10 · model WASH by 19.4
Mkt WASH 10
Model WASH 19.4
-28028

11.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 45.5 · model 45.6
Mkt 45.5
Model 45.6
246096

Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: WASH · model agrees
Opened
WASH -9
Pinnacle now
WASH -10(+1.3)
Retail now
WASH -10
Moves
20 across 7 books

First sharp move Sun 5:44 PM: WASH -8.5 → WASH -9, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still WASH -8.5.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model agrees
Opened
45.5
Pinnacle now
46(+0.5)
Retail now
45.5+0.5 behind
Moves
10 across 7 books · 1 led

First sharp move Mon 9:16 AM: 45 → 46, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 45.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.