Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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South Carolina Gamecocks
2-1
Model predicts
22 – 37
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium · 79° · Partly sunny
Alabama Crimson Tide
3-0
Spread ALA -12.5 (opened ALA -11.5)Total 53.5Moneyline SC +375 · ALA -5157 books · best SC +393 betonlineag · ALA -485 draftkings
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
ALA -515
82%
model margin ALA by 15.6
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
ALA -12.5
51%
3.1 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 53.5
52%
model total 59.1

The read

The clearest mismatch is the passing game: ALA passing ranks #52, SC defends it at #119; the other way SC #94 into ALA's #39. The model lands on ALA by 15.6 against a market ALA by 12.5, so the spread lean is ALA by 3.1 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 59.1 against 53.5.

Who has the edge

Model: ALA by 15.6 · market ALA by 12.5
Passing game
Clear edge
ALA
ALA passing ranks #52, SC defends it at #119; the other way SC #94 into ALA's #39.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
ALA rushing ranks #13, SC defends it at #26; the other way SC #9 into ALA's #9.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
ALA third-down conversion ranks #55, SC defends it at #42; the other way SC #26 into ALA's #12.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
ALA +26.7 per game over the last five, SC +28.7.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
ALA
Consensus has ALA by 12.5; the model says ALA by 15.6.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ALA by 12.5 · model ALA by 15.6
Mkt ALA 12.5
Model ALA 15.6
-28028

4.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 53.5 · model 59.1
Mkt 53.5
Model 59.1
246096

15.0% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 59.1 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
ALA -11
Pinnacle now
ALA -12.5(-0.3)
Retail now
ALA -12.5
Moves
19 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Sun 8:04 PM: ALA -12.5 → ALA -13, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still ALA -12.5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model disagrees
Opened
51
Pinnacle now
54(-0.5)
Retail now
53.5+0.5 behind
Moves
13 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Mon 8:32 AM: 55 → 55.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 54.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.