Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Northwestern Wildcats
2-0
Model predicts
9 – 38
Fri, Sep 25, 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 62° · Partly cloudy
Indiana Hoosiers
3-0
Spread IU -20.5 (opened IU -23.5)Total 49.5Moneyline NU +979 · IU -18007 books · best NU +1100 draftkings · IU -1600 betmgm
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
IU -1800
95%
model margin IU by 28.3
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
IU -20.5
53%
7.8 pts from the number · best IU -20 at betonlineag
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 49.5
51%
model total 46.9 · best under 50 at pinnacle

The read

The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: IU third-down conversion ranks #1, NU defends it at #99; the other way NU #37 into IU's #8. The model lands on IU by 28.3 against a market IU by 20.5, so the spread lean is IU by 7.8 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 46.9 against 49.5.

Who has the edge

Model: IU by 28.3 · market IU by 20.5
Passing game
Clear edge
IU
IU passing ranks #4, NU defends it at #71; the other way NU #83 into IU's #43.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
IU
IU rushing ranks #26, NU defends it at #101; the other way NU #58 into IU's #3.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
IU
IU third-down conversion ranks #1, NU defends it at #99; the other way NU #37 into IU's #8.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
IU
IU +43.0 per game over the last five, NU +25.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
IU
Consensus has IU by 20.5; the model says IU by 28.3.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket IU by 20.5 · model IU by 28.3
Mkt IU 20.5
Model IU 28.3
-28028

11.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 49.5 · model 46.9
Mkt 49.5
Model 46.9
246096

7.6% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 46.9 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: NU · model disagrees
Opened
IU -23
Pinnacle now
IU -20.25(-2)
Retail now
IU -20.5
Moves
23 across 7 books · 3 led

First sharp move Sun 8:04 PM: IU -22.5 → IU -21.5, 1 book followed within six hours; retail was still IU -22.5.

Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
47.5
Pinnacle now
49.8
Retail now
49.5
Moves
14 across 7 books · 5 led

First sharp move Sun 8:04 PM: 49.5 → 50, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 49.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.