Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Liberty Flames
2-1
27
at
Thu, Sep 24, 7:30 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC) · 63°
Live· Q4 1:07
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
1-2
17
Spread LIB -2.5 (opened CCU -1.5)Total 50.5Moneyline LIB -140 · CCU +1207 books · best LIB -134 fanduel · CCU +121 pinnacle
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Lean
LIB -140
55%
model margin LIB by 2.2
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Slight
CCU +2.5
50%
0.3 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Slight
Over 50.5
50%
model total 50.8 · best over 49.5 at hardrockbet
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has LIB winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, CCU. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: CCU rushing ranks #74, LIB defends it at #96; the other way LIB #113 into CCU's #53. The model lands on LIB by 2.2, essentially the market's number — no spread lean.

Who has the edge

Model: LIB by 2.2 · market LIB by 2.5
Passing game
Clear edge
LIB
LIB passing ranks #66, CCU defends it at #117; the other way CCU #61 into LIB's #47.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
CCU
CCU rushing ranks #74, LIB defends it at #96; the other way LIB #113 into CCU's #53.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
LIB
LIB third-down conversion ranks #46, CCU defends it at #82; the other way CCU #83 into LIB's #36.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
CCU +7.7 per game over the last five, LIB +10.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
LIB
Consensus has LIB by 2.5; the model says LIB by 2.2.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LIB by 2.5 · model LIB by 2.2
Mkt LIB 2.5
Model LIB 2.2
-28028

The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 50.5 · model 50.8
Mkt 50.5
Model 50.8
246096

Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: LIB · model disagrees
Opened
CCU -1.5
Pinnacle now
LIB -2.25(-0.5)
Retail now
LIB -2.5
Moves
27 across 7 books · 4 led

First sharp move Tue 9:32 AM: LIB -1 → LIB -2.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still LIB -2.5.

Total
Sharp side: the under · model disagrees
Opened
53.5
Pinnacle now
50(-2)
Retail now
50.5-0.5 behind
Moves
39 across 7 books · 2 led

First sharp move Tue 1:20 PM: 52 → 51, 6 books followed within six hours; retail was still 52.Steam Thu 4:01 PM

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.