The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
98%Boise State BroncosStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BOIS by 35.5market BOIS by 28.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.9 pointsmarket 61.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Boise State Broncos at 98% to win, with the market at BOIS by 28.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: BOIS has the better last five games by 27.8 points a game (BOIS +13.8, SDAK -14.0).
Home field is with BOIS, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BOIS by 35.5 against a market BOIS by 28.5: 7.0 points of daylight in BOIS's favour. The model's total is 54.9 against a line of 61.5: 6.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BOIS by 35.5 · market BOIS by 28.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS +13.8 per game over the last five, SDAK −14.0.
Market
BOIS
Clear advantage
Consensus has BOIS by 28.5; the model says BOIS by 35.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BOIS by 28.5 · model BOIS by 35.5
Mkt BOIS 28.5
Model BOIS 35.5
← SDAK by 28tieBOIS by 28 →
6.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 61.5 · model 54.9
Mkt 61.5
Model 54.9
24 pts6096 pts
15.9% of FBS games finish between 61.5 and 54.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: BOISModel agrees
Opened
BOIS -24.5
→
Market maker now
BOIS -28
▲ 1.8 since open
→
Retail now
BOIS -27.5
0.5 behind
3 moves7 books0 led
Fri, Sep 18, 7:20 PM first sharp move: BOIS -24.5 → BOIS -26
No books followed within six hours
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
56
→
Market maker now
59.5
▲ 2 since open
→
Retail now
60.5
1 behind
4 moves7 books1 led
Fri, Sep 18, 7:20 PM first sharp move: 56 → 56.5
No books followed within six hours
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
