The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
90%Tennessee VolunteersStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TENN by 21.6market TENN by 35.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.1 pointsmarket 60.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Volunteers at 90% to win, with the market at TENN by 35.5.
TENN has the advantage in passing: TENN passing ranks #123, KENN defends it at #117; the other way KENN #103 into TENN's #1.
TENN has the advantage in rushing: TENN rushing ranks #6, KENN defends it at #94; the other way KENN #41 into TENN's #70.
Form: TENN has the better last five games by 22.4 points a game (TENN +21.6, KENN -0.8).
Home field is with TENN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TENN by 21.6 against a market TENN by 35.5: 13.9 points of daylight in KENN's favour. The model's total is 62.1 against a line of 60.5: 1.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TENN by 21.6 · market TENN by 35.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN passing ranks #123, KENN defends it at #117; the other way KENN #103 into TENN's #1.
Rushing game
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN rushing ranks #6, KENN defends it at #94; the other way KENN #41 into TENN's #70.
Third down & red zone
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN points / scoring opportunity ranks #20, KENN defends it at #100; the other way KENN #57 into TENN's #9.
Big plays
KENN
Slight advantage
KENN rush explosiveness ranks #25, TENN defends it at #116; the other way TENN #38 into KENN's #51.
Pass protection & rush
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN sack rate ranks #124, KENN defends it at #133; the other way KENN #24 into TENN's #2.
Ball security
=
Even
TENN turnovers / game ranks #62, KENN defends it at #68; the other way KENN #60 into TENN's #44.
Form (last 5)
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN +21.6 per game over the last five, KENN −0.8.
Market
TENN
Clear advantage
Consensus has TENN by 35.5; the model says TENN by 21.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TENN by 35.5 · model TENN by 21.6
Mkt TENN 35.5
Model TENN 21.6
← KENN by 28tieTENN by 28 →
16.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 60.5 · model 62.1
Mkt 60.5
Model 62.1
24 pts6096 pts
4.6% of FBS games finish between 60.5 and 62.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
TENN -35
→
Market maker now
TENN -35.25
no move
→
Retail now
TENN -35.5
in line
1 moves7 books0 led
Total
Sharp side: the overModel agrees
Opened
60
→
Market maker now
61
▲ 0.5 since open
→
Retail now
60.5
0.5 behind
3 moves7 books0 led
Sat, Sep 19, 6:20 PM first sharp move: 60 → 61
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 60 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
