The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
94%Washington State CougarsStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSU by 26.6market WSU by 38.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.9 pointsmarket 51.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington State Cougars at 94% to win, with the market at WSU by 38.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Rest: DUQ has 7 more days since its last game (WSU 7d, DUQ 14d).
Form: WSU has the better last five games by 31.5 points a game (WSU -6.0, DUQ -37.5).
Home field is with WSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSU by 26.6 against a market WSU by 38.5: 11.9 points of daylight in DUQ's favour. The model's total is 44.9 against a line of 51.5: 6.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSU by 26.6 · market WSU by 38.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU −6.0 per game over the last five, DUQ −37.5.
Market
WSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has WSU by 38.5; the model says WSU by 26.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WSU by 38.5 · model WSU by 26.6
Mkt WSU 38.5
Model WSU 26.6
← DUQ by 28tieWSU by 28 →
12.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 44.9
Mkt 51.5
Model 44.9
24 pts6096 pts
17.2% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 44.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
WSU -38.5
→
Market maker now
WSU -38.75
no move
→
Retail now
WSU -38.5
in line
0 moves7 books0 led
Total
Sharp side: the underModel agrees
Opened
54
→
Market maker now
53.3
▼ 0.8 since open
→
Retail now
51.5
1.8 behind
5 moves7 books0 led
Fri, Sep 18, 4:20 PM first sharp move: 54 → 53
No books followed within six hours
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
