The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%SMU MustangsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SMU by 0.3market SMU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.1 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has SMU Mustangs at 51% to win, with the market at SMU by 2.5.
SMU has the advantage in big plays: SMU pass explosiveness ranks #37, ARIZ defends it at #100; the other way ARIZ #92 into SMU's #33.
SMU has the advantage in rushing: SMU rushing ranks #64, ARIZ defends it at #68; the other way ARIZ #45 into SMU's #4.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours ARIZ. ARIZ turnovers / game ranks #26, SMU defends it at #5; the other way SMU #93 into ARIZ's #1. The pick still lands on SMU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it SMU by 0.3 against a market SMU by 2.5: 2.2 points of daylight in ARIZ's favour. The model's total is 51.1 against a line of 55.5: 4.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SMU by 0.3 · market SMU by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
SMU passing ranks #23, ARIZ defends it at #16; the other way ARIZ #60 into SMU's #53.
Rushing game
SMU
Slight advantage
SMU rushing ranks #64, ARIZ defends it at #68; the other way ARIZ #45 into SMU's #4.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
SMU points / scoring opportunity ranks #52, ARIZ defends it at #44; the other way ARIZ #78 into SMU's #12.
Big plays
SMU
Clear advantage
SMU pass explosiveness ranks #37, ARIZ defends it at #100; the other way ARIZ #92 into SMU's #33.
Pass protection & rush
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
ARIZ
Clear advantage
ARIZ turnovers / game ranks #26, SMU defends it at #5; the other way SMU #93 into ARIZ's #1.
Form (last 5)
SMU
Slight advantage
SMU +14.4 per game over the last five, ARIZ +9.0.
Market
SMU
Slight advantage
Consensus has SMU by 2.5; the model says SMU by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SMU by 2.5 · model SMU by 0.3
Mkt SMU 2.5
Model SMU 0.3
← ARIZ by 28tieSMU by 28 →
2.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 51.1
Mkt 55.5
Model 51.1
24 pts6096 pts
9.4% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 51.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
