The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Indiana HoosiersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IU by 5.5market IU by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.4 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Indiana Hoosiers at 62% to win, with the market at IU by 7.5.
IU has the advantage in rushing: IU rushing ranks #26, ALA defends it at #61; the other way ALA #106 into IU's #3.
IU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: IU points / scoring opportunity ranks #1, ALA defends it at #66; the other way ALA #38 into IU's #1.
Rest: IU has 13 more days since its last game (IU 26d, ALA 13d).
Form: IU has the better last five games by 22.8 points a game (IU +26.2, ALA +3.4).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it IU by 5.5 against a market IU by 7.5: 2.0 points of daylight in ALA's favour. The model's total is 51.4 against a line of 46.5: 4.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IU by 5.5 · market IU by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
IU passing ranks #4, ALA defends it at #28; the other way ALA #36 into IU's #43.
Rushing game
IU
Clear advantage
IU rushing ranks #26, ALA defends it at #61; the other way ALA #106 into IU's #3.
Third down & red zone
IU
Clear advantage
IU points / scoring opportunity ranks #1, ALA defends it at #66; the other way ALA #38 into IU's #1.
Big plays
=
Even
ALA pass explosiveness ranks #53, IU defends it at #58; the other way IU #91 into ALA's #49.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
IU sack rate ranks #63, ALA defends it at #30; the other way ALA #55 into IU's #6.
Ball security
IU
Slight advantage
IU turnovers / game ranks #3, ALA defends it at #59; the other way ALA #15 into IU's #13.
Form (last 5)
IU
Clear advantage
IU +26.2 per game over the last five, ALA +3.4.
Market
IU
Clear advantage
Consensus has IU by 7.5; the model says IU by 5.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket IU by 7.5 · model IU by 5.5
Mkt IU 7.5
Model IU 5.5
← ALA by 28tieIU by 28 →
5.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 51.4
Mkt 46.5
Model 51.4
24 pts6096 pts
12.7% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 51.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
