The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Duke Blue DevilsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DUKE by 0.9market DUKE by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.5 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Duke Blue Devils at 52% to win, with the market at DUKE by 4.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Rest: ASU has 8 more days since its last game (DUKE 25d, ASU 33d).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it DUKE by 0.9 against a market DUKE by 4: 3.1 points of daylight in ASU's favour. The model's total is 56.5 against a line of 49.5: 7.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DUKE by 0.9 · market DUKE by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor ASU, but the model still picks DUKE. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
ASU
Slight advantage
ASU passing ranks #69, DUKE defends it at #119; the other way DUKE #26 into ASU's #41.
Rushing game
=
Even
DUKE rushing ranks #76, ASU defends it at #44; the other way ASU #91 into DUKE's #55.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ASU third-down conversion ranks #124, DUKE defends it at #124; the other way DUKE #78 into ASU's #42.
Big plays
ASU
Slight advantage
ASU pass explosiveness ranks #46, DUKE defends it at #106; the other way DUKE #44 into ASU's #40.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ASU sack rate ranks #84, DUKE defends it at #95; the other way DUKE #37 into ASU's #34.
Ball security
DUKE
Clear advantage
DUKE turnovers / game ranks #29, ASU defends it at #85; the other way ASU #108 into DUKE's #23.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
DUKE +3.4 per game over the last five, ASU +2.6.
Market
DUKE
Clear advantage
Consensus has DUKE by 4; the model says DUKE by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket DUKE by 4 · model DUKE by 0.9
Mkt DUKE 4
Model DUKE 0.9
← ASU by 28tieDUKE by 28 →
7.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 56.5
Mkt 49.5
Model 56.5
24 pts6096 pts
16.1% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 56.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
