The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
66%Ohio State BuckeyesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OSU by 7.2market OSU by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
31.5 pointsmarket 39.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio State Buckeyes at 66% to win, with the market at OSU by 7.5.
OSU has the advantage in big plays: OSU rush explosiveness ranks #130, MIA defends it at #98; the other way MIA #126 into OSU's #15.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours MIA. MIA turnovers / game ranks #25, OSU defends it at #101; the other way OSU #8 into MIA's #35. The pick still lands on OSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: OSU has 14 more days since its last game (OSU 25d, MIA 11d).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it OSU by 7.2 against a market OSU by 7.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 31.5 against a line of 39.5: 8.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OSU by 7.2 · market OSU by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
OSU passing ranks #2, MIA defends it at #18; the other way MIA #10 into OSU's #7.
Rushing game
=
Even
OSU rushing ranks #72, MIA defends it at #16; the other way MIA #65 into OSU's #2.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
OSU third-down conversion ranks #3, MIA defends it at #11; the other way MIA #19 into OSU's #10.
Big plays
OSU
Slight advantage
OSU rush explosiveness ranks #130, MIA defends it at #98; the other way MIA #126 into OSU's #15.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
OSU sack rate ranks #27, MIA defends it at #22; the other way MIA #12 into OSU's #5.
Ball security
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA turnovers / game ranks #25, OSU defends it at #101; the other way OSU #8 into MIA's #35.
Form (last 5)
OSU
Slight advantage
OSU +15.2 per game over the last five, MIA +9.2.
Market
OSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has OSU by 7.5; the model says OSU by 7.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OSU by 7.5 · model OSU by 7.2
Mkt OSU 7.5
Model OSU 7.2
← MIA by 28tieOSU by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 39.5 · model 31.5
Mkt 39.5
Model 31.5
24 pts6096 pts
11.2% of FBS games finish between 39.5 and 31.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
