The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%UConn HuskiesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CONN by 4.2market ARMY by 8.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.0 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UConn Huskies at 60% to win, with the market at ARMY by 8.5.
CONN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CONN third-down conversion ranks #60, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into CONN's #50.
CONN has the advantage in passing: CONN passing ranks #5, ARMY defends it at #78; the other way ARMY #28 into CONN's #72.
Rest: CONN has 21 more days since its last game (ARMY 14d, CONN 35d).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it CONN by 4.2 against a market ARMY by 8.5: 12.7 points of daylight in CONN's favour. The model's total is 45.0 against a line of 41.5: 3.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CONN by 4.2 · market ARMY by 8.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CONN
Slight advantage
CONN passing ranks #5, ARMY defends it at #78; the other way ARMY #28 into CONN's #72.
Rushing game
=
Even
ARMY rushing ranks #69, CONN defends it at #124; the other way CONN #23 into ARMY's #75.
Third down & red zone
CONN
Slight advantage
CONN third-down conversion ranks #60, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into CONN's #50.
Big plays
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY pass explosiveness ranks #1, CONN defends it at #67; the other way CONN #48 into ARMY's #38.
Pass protection & rush
CONN
Clear advantage
CONN sack rate ranks #11, ARMY defends it at #132; the other way ARMY #17 into CONN's #9.
Ball security
=
Even
CONN turnovers / game ranks #1, ARMY defends it at #74; the other way ARMY #10 into CONN's #65.
Form (last 5)
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY +5.4 per game over the last five, CONN +2.0.
Market
ARMY
Clear advantage
Consensus has ARMY by 8.5; the model says CONN by 4.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ARMY by 8.5 · model CONN by 4.2
Mkt ARMY 8.5
Model CONN 4.2
← CONN by 28tieARMY by 28 →
27.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 45.0
Mkt 41.5
Model 45.0
24 pts6096 pts
8.7% of FBS games finish between 41.5 and 45.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
