The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Washington State CougarsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSU by 3.2market USU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.0 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington State Cougars at 57% to win, with the market at USU by 1.5.
WSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WSU third-down conversion ranks #87, USU defends it at #83; the other way USU #112 into WSU's #32.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours USU. USU turnovers / game ranks #14, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into USU's #64. The pick still lands on WSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it WSU by 3.2 against a market USU by 1.5: 4.7 points of daylight in WSU's favour. The model's total is 47.0 against a line of 50.5: 3.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSU by 3.2 · market USU by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
USU passing ranks #51, WSU defends it at #15; the other way WSU #105 into USU's #60.
Rushing game
=
Even
WSU rushing ranks #88, USU defends it at #115; the other way USU #38 into WSU's #53.
Third down & red zone
WSU
Slight advantage
WSU third-down conversion ranks #87, USU defends it at #83; the other way USU #112 into WSU's #32.
Big plays
=
Even
USU pass explosiveness ranks #67, WSU defends it at #18; the other way WSU #120 into USU's #24.
Pass protection & rush
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU sack rate ranks #50, USU defends it at #70; the other way USU #125 into WSU's #17.
Ball security
USU
Clear advantage
USU turnovers / game ranks #14, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into USU's #64.
Form (last 5)
WSU
Slight advantage
USU +6.2 per game over the last five, WSU +11.0.
Market
USU
Slight advantage
Consensus has USU by 1.5; the model says WSU by 3.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket USU by 1.5 · model WSU by 3.2
Mkt USU 1.5
Model WSU 3.2
← WSU by 28tieUSU by 28 →
8.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 47.0
Mkt 50.5
Model 47.0
24 pts6096 pts
7.0% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 47.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
