The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Troy TrojansLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TROY by 1.4market JVST by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.4 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Troy Trojans at 53% to win, with the market at JVST by 3.5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours JVST. JVST turnovers / game ranks #23, TROY defends it at #66; the other way TROY #73 into JVST's #25. The pick still lands on TROY because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JVST has the better last five games by 7.6 points a game (JVST +1.2, TROY -6.4).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it TROY by 1.4 against a market JVST by 3.5: 4.9 points of daylight in TROY's favour. The model's total is 46.4 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TROY by 1.4 · market JVST by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor JVST, but the model still picks TROY. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
TROY passing ranks #108, JVST defends it at #61; the other way JVST #85 into TROY's #35.
Rushing game
JVST
Clear advantage
JVST rushing ranks #32, TROY defends it at #76; the other way TROY #115 into JVST's #78.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TROY points / scoring opportunity ranks #71, JVST defends it at #80; the other way JVST #64 into TROY's #30.
Big plays
=
Even
JVST rush explosiveness ranks #13, TROY defends it at #58; the other way TROY #113 into JVST's #108.
Pass protection & rush
TROY
Slight advantage
TROY sack rate ranks #133, JVST defends it at #91; the other way JVST #89 into TROY's #18.
Ball security
JVST
Clear advantage
JVST turnovers / game ranks #23, TROY defends it at #66; the other way TROY #73 into JVST's #25.
Form (last 5)
JVST
Clear advantage
JVST +1.2 per game over the last five, TROY −6.4.
Market
JVST
Clear advantage
Consensus has JVST by 3.5; the model says TROY by 1.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket JVST by 3.5 · model TROY by 1.4
Mkt JVST 3.5
Model TROY 1.4
← TROY by 28tieJVST by 28 →
9.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 46.4
Mkt 47.5
Model 46.4
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 46.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
